US Economics Update Debt ceiling impasse likely to drag on into early June The debt ceiling stand-off will probably now drag on into early June, setting up the prospect of a near-default before a bipartisan bill is finally passed by Congress, possibly only after a more... 25th May 2023 · 4 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Downward trend continues We estimate that employment growth continued to trend gradually lower in May with a 200,000 rise in non-farm payrolls. Although the unemployment rate remains exceptionally low, the report should also... 25th May 2023 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Chart Pack Portland, San Francisco and Seattle off to a bad start Metro level data for Q1 2023 showed the slowdown in occupier demand was widespread, with no market consistently outperforming across the sectors in terms of absorption. While office and industrial... 24th May 2023 · 6 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Commercial stocks slumped as imports fell sharply. Meanwhile, implied product demand rose, but we think the usual summer boost to demand may be more subdued this year as economic growth slows. 24th May 2023 · 2 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Too soon to sound the all-clear for construction The turnaround in the housing market, with sales and prices rebounding in April, has raised hopes that construction will hold up despite elevated borrowing costs. Media reports suggest that buyer... 24th May 2023 · 8 mins read
Global Markets Update Narrow stock market rallies have rarely lasted long Perhaps the most remarkable feature of this year’s rally in US equities is just how narrow it has been. We think history suggests that this bodes poorly for the S&P 500’s prospects over the rest of... 24th May 2023 · 5 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Apr.) New home sales recovered to close to pre-pandemic levels in April as a lack of existing homes for sale pushed buyers to the new build sector. But still-stretched affordability and a weakening economy... 23rd May 2023 · 2 mins read
US Chart Pack Resilience of activity won’t stop inflation falling The resilience of the April activity data and apparent stabilisation in housing have raised hopes that a recession may yet be avoided this year. That said, forward-looking indicators suggest that the... 23rd May 2023 · 9 mins read
Capital Daily Economy taking a back seat for the US stock market for now The recent performance of sectors within the S&P 500 is hard to square with either the economic outlook or TIPS yields. We suspect it reflects shifts in sentiment around the tech sector, which may... 22nd May 2023 · 5 mins read
US Commercial Property Chart Pack Weak Q1, but bigger price falls to come in Q2 The economy has been relatively resilient so far, but with the banking turmoil set to weigh on activity, we continue to expect a recession this year. Slower growth has already translated to softer... 19th May 2023 · 10 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of the potential return of “higher for longer” We suspect a return of “higher for longer” in markets would be worse for short-dated Treasuries than long-dated ones, at least in the near term. 19th May 2023 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank of Canada set to raise interest rates again The Bank of Canada’s latest Financial System Review reiterated the risks to households from higher interest rates, but concluded that most are coping well. Following the rapid turnaround in the... 19th May 2023 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Rising yields push dollar higher ahead of Powell comments The US dollar looks set to end the week stronger against most major currencies amid the prospect of policy rates in developed markets (DM) remaining “higher for longer”. While this week’s rise in DM... 19th May 2023 · 9 mins read
US Economics Weekly Economic resilience emboldens Fed hawks Recent solid activity data and the apparent progress on debt ceiling negotiations appear to have convinced some Fed officials that it is still too early to pause interest rate hikes. We still aren’t... 19th May 2023 · 8 mins read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Mar.) The fall in retail sales in March was driven mainly by lower vehicle sales. Overall sales volumes still rose by 4.9% annualised last quarter, suggesting that a pick-up in consumption supported GDP... 19th May 2023 · 3 mins read
