US Economics Update Bank stress continues with First Republic collapse The collapse of First Republic Bank is no big surprise – it had been teetering on the edge since suffering $100bn in deposit withdrawals mostly in March – but it’s a timely reminder that banking... 1st May 2023 · 3 mins read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing (Apr) & Construction Spending (Mar) The trivial rebound in the ISM manufacturing index to a still depressed 47.1 in April, from 46.3, contrasts with the more substantial recovery in the alternative S&P Global PMI but echoes the more... 1st May 2023 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly Q1 GDP growth muted; Q2 will be worse Although underlying activity growth rebounded in the first quarter, while wage and price inflation remained too high, we expect the second quarter to bring a sharper slowdown across the board. 28th April 2023 · 9 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Declining vacancies should soothe Bank’s nerves The Bank of Canada’s Summary of Deliberations suggests it was closer to resuming interest rate hikes in April than we thought. Nonetheless, as the data releases this week showed a fall in the job... 28th April 2023 · 6 mins read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Feb.) The small rise in GDP in February points to healthy first-quarter growth but, with the preliminary estimate pointing to a contraction in March and activity set to suffer in April due to the federal... 28th April 2023 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Update Recession to weigh on housing recovery The housing market will face growing headwinds from tighter credit conditions, slowing income growth and rising unemployment as the economy enters a recession this year. That will offset some of the... 27th April 2023 · 3 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Labour market conditions easing We estimate that employment growth continued to trend lower in April, with non-farm payrolls increasing by a more moderate 180,000. That would be the smallest monthly gain in more than two years, but... 27th April 2023 · 3 mins read
DM Markets Chart Pack We expect “risky” assets to fall later this year We think disappointing global growth will be a headwind for “risky” assets in developed markets during the second half of this year. 27th April 2023 · 8 mins read
US Data Response GDP (Q1 ) The disappointing 1.1% annualised rise in first-quarter GDP indicates that the economy had less forward momentum at the start of this year than previously thought. We continue to expect the drag from... 27th April 2023 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response RICS Commercial Market Survey (Q1) The RICS Q1 survey indicated confidence fell further in the opening months of the year but remains substantially above the lows seen during the height of the pandemic. However, we expect sentiment to... 27th April 2023 · 3 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Commercial stocks fell last week as production and net imports declined. Meanwhile, product demand remains resilient, but we doubt oil demand can weather the mounting economic headwinds much longer. 26th April 2023 · 2 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Housing turnaround makes the Bank’s job harder House prices edged up in March and the sharp rise in the sales-to-new listing ratio suggests there are further gains to come. As the improvement has been driven mainly by a collapse in new listings... 26th April 2023 · 8 mins read
