Canada Economics Update Output rapidly falling below potential The weakness of GDP growth in the second and third quarters means that the Bank of Canada is likely to make a marked re-assessment of its output gap estimates in its October Monetary Policy Report... 18th October 2023 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Cyclically higher for shorter; structurally higher for longer We think equilibrium real policy rates in advanced economies will continue to rise over the next decade or so. That has profound implications for government bond yields and risky asset valuations. 17th October 2023 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Update Housing Watch (Oct.) The renewed increases in mortgage rates and new listings mean we now expect house prices to fall by 5% over the next six months. The big risk, however, is that we are underestimating the degree to... 17th October 2023 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response Retail Sales (Sep.) The unexpectedly-strong 0.7% m/m rise in retail sales in September continues the theme of consumer resilience in the face of higher interest rates, but with employment and wage growth slowing and the... 17th October 2023 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank’s surveys unlikely to prompt another hike The Bank of Canada’s quarterly surveys show that businesses’ inflation expectations continue to decline, albeit slowly, and point to a growing risk that the economy will fall into recession... 16th October 2023 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Rapid Response Commercial Property Lending (Sep) The jump in lending in August proved temporary as net lending to commercial property totalled just $13.5bn in September, below the average for 2023 thus far. This took total outstanding real estate... 16th October 2023 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly From bust to boom and back again for housing The fall in house prices in September shows just how quickly conditions in the housing market have shifted and the plunge in the sales-to-new listing ratio points to more weakness to come. That is... 13th October 2023 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly Case for final Fed hike continues to weaken There appears to be growing support at the Fed for the idea that the recent sell-off in long-term Treasuries reduces the need for further policy rate hikes, but the more persuasive reason for the Fed... 13th October 2023 · 8 mins read
US Rapid Response Consumer Prices (Sep.) The 0.3% m/m rise in core consumer prices in September suggests, at face value, that the downward trend in core inflation may be easing. But that’s largely because of a stronger gain in shelter prices... 12th October 2023 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Fed FOMC Minutes (19th-20th Sep. Meeting) Despite the ‘higher for longer’ message from the Fed’s updated rate projections last month, the minutes from the September FOMC meeting suggest that officials’ confidence in those forecasts is limited... 11th October 2023 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Office Metros Outlook Office value falls to exceed 50% in worst-hit cities The outlook for offices is negative across all markets, but we expect substantial differences across the 17 metros we forecast. We now think Seattle, San Francisco and Austin will see vacancy rise by... 11th October 2023 · 13 mins read
Canada Economics Update What’s behind resurgent core inflation pressures? The recent strength of core inflation compared to that in the US is mainly due to a rebound in durable goods prices. That has little to do with demand, which has weakened to a greater extent in Canada... 11th October 2023 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily “Higher for longer” Fed funds rate or term premia? We expect a continued paring back of US interest rate expectations to keep pushing long-dated Treasury yields down in coming quarters. But higher term premia may limit those falls in yields. 10th October 2023 · 4 mins read
