US Economics Update Strikes remain few and far between The United Auto Workers (UAW) strike action aimed at the Big Three automakers should have only a trivial effect on the broader economy. More generally, despite the tightness of labour market... 19th September 2023 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response Housing Starts (Aug.) Housing starts fell sharply across both the single-family and multifamily sectors in August, suggesting that construction has now reached a turning point. We expect this downward trend to continue for... 19th September 2023 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily On the dwindling influence of TIPS on other assets The latest increase in the 10-year TIPS yield, to a post-Global-Financial-Crisis high of ~2% at one point last week, has barely caused a ripple in the markets. More generally, the influence of “safe”... 18th September 2023 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Update Housing Watch (Sep.) House price inflation turned positive in August, but the smaller monthly price gain combined with signs of easing demand and increasing supply show that the housing market continues to cool. 18th September 2023 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Rapid Response Commercial Property Lending (Aug) The $29.0bn monthly rise in real estate debt held by US banks in August, now at $5.48trn outstanding, was the largest m/m increase in six months. However, we expect this spike to be short-lived, as... 18th September 2023 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly No sign of immigration slowdown as opinion shifts A recent poll suggests that Canadians are growing sceptical of the government’s high immigration targets. Whether policy shifts or not, it is inevitable that net immigration will eventually slow from... 15th September 2023 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly Shutdowns and strikes could disrupt economy With no agreement on a new contract with the big three automakers, the United Auto Workers union has started limited strike action. The impact on overall GDP should be limited but, if production... 15th September 2023 · 5 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Apartment and single-family REIT divergence to persist The recent outperformance of single-family REITs versus apartment REITs appears to be down to differences in the capital value outlook for the sectors, rather than any major difference in rental... 15th September 2023 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update Plunging food inflation to offset higher oil prices CPI food inflation has remained elevated in recent months but, with wholesale price growth easing rapidly, we are confident it will soon fall sharply. That will help to offset the impact of higher oil... 14th September 2023 · 5 mins read
US Rapid Response Retail Sales (Aug.) The 0.6% m/m rise in retail sales values in August was mostly due to price-related strength in gasoline sales, with the muted 0.1% rise in underlying control group sales suggesting that consumption... 14th September 2023 · 2 mins read
US Fed Watch Easing inflation to drive rates sharply lower next year The Fed is set to keep rates unchanged at 5.25%-5.50% at the FOMC meeting next week and the new projections could show that plans for further hikes have been scrapped. We continue to expect the Fed’s... 13th September 2023 · 8 mins read
US Rapid Response Consumer Prices (Aug.) The Fed will look through the 0.6% m/m jump in headline CPI in August as it was driven by the recent rally in energy prices. Although core prices also rose by a slightly stronger 0.3% m/m, there is... 13th September 2023 · 2 mins read
