Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (Oct. 2023) Our Canada Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Strong immigration is unlikely to be enough to prevent a mild recession, with GDP contracting... 25th October 2023 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank’s next move likely to be a rate cut Although the Bank of Canada maintained its tightening bias today, the rest of its communications suggest that the Bank is growing more confident it has done enough to eventually get inflation back to... 25th October 2023 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Is the US Treasury yield curve about to “disinvert”? We expect the US Treasury 10-year/2-year yield spread to turn positive before long, and subsequently rise further over the next year or so. 25th October 2023 · 4 mins read
US Fed Watch Still on course for rate cuts next year We don’t expect a significant change in tone from the Fed next week, with rates on hold but officials keeping the option of further tightening on the table. That said, the surge in long-term Treasury... 25th October 2023 · 8 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response New Home Sales (Sep. 2023) Extraordinarily limited supply in the existing homes market continued to drive buyers to new homes in September. The 12.4% m/m rise in new home sales in September took them to 759,000 annualised... 25th October 2023 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Inflation uncertainty and Treasury term premia Concerns over supply-demand dynamics in the Treasury market seem to be a key factor pushing up Treasury term premia. But we think rising inflation uncertainty among investors has also played a part. 23rd October 2023 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly Third-quarter strength unlikely to last The apparent strength of third-quarter GDP growth won’t convince the Fed to resume hiking its policy rate, particularly with the ongoing surge in long-term bond yields presenting a growing threat to... 20th October 2023 · 8 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Lower house prices will help pull down CPI inflation The renewed weakness in the housing market and likelihood that mortgage interest cost inflation will soon ease are reasons to expect core inflation to trend lower in the coming months. Next week, the... 20th October 2023 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update What our revised forecasts for Treasuries imply for US equities Although we have revised up our forecasts for the 10-year Treasury yield between now and the end of 2025, we aren’t inclined to change our upbeat projection for the S&P 500 over this period. This is... 20th October 2023 · 4 mins read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Oct. 2023) The renewed surge in long-term Treasury yields illustrates that the full impact of Fed tightening is still feeding through, and we continue to expect economic growth to slow sharply over the coming... 20th October 2023 · 1 min read
Asset Allocation Update On the relative performance of assets in China & the US We think both the recent outperformance of China’s sovereign bonds relative to those in the US and the underperformance of its equities will end – and may even reverse somewhat – in the near future... 20th October 2023 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Bank equities may not recover much in the near term Big banks in the US have reported quite strong earnings in Q3 but, given our pessimistic view of the economy there, we doubt that their stocks will outperform much in the next couple of months. 19th October 2023 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response Existing Home Sales (Sep. 2023) Existing home sales fell to their lowest level since October 2010 in September as the increase in mortgage rates to a fresh 23-year high caused buyers and sellers to withdraw from the market. A... 19th October 2023 · 2 mins read
