Capital Daily High-yield credit spreads may rise again We think the risks to the “goldilocks” view now being discounted in markets are skewed towards a bigger slowdown in the US economy than is currently discounted, driving credit spreads up over the... 6th November 2023 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update Risk of forced home sales is rising There are increasing signs that the most leveraged borrowers are struggling to refinance their mortgages with traditional lenders. The small but meaningful number of insured mortgage holders who took... 6th November 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily A goldilocks Employment Report for US bonds and equities We think today’s big moves in markets in the wake of October’s US Employment Report are a sign of things to come over the next twelve months or so. 3rd November 2023 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fourth quarter bringing renewed slowdown There is now mounting evidence that the economy is set for a renewed slowdown in the fourth quarter and that inflationary pressures from the labour market continue to ease. Although markets have... 3rd November 2023 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly In recession Employment edged up in October but the broad-based weakness of GDP growth, the depressed business surveys and the rapidly weakening housing market all suggest that the economy is in the early stages... 3rd November 2023 · 5 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Labour Force Survey (Oct.) The more modest rise in employment and essentially unchanged hours worked in October suggest that labour demand is easing gradually, and the 0.2%-pt rise in the unemployment rate shows that the... 3rd November 2023 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Employment Report (Oct.) The muted 150,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in October is another sign that the economy’s strength in the third quarter is likely to unwind in the fourth. With wage growth also continuing to slow, it... 3rd November 2023 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update More pain to come for first-time buyers The rise in the US homeownership rate has stalled, driven by a drop in the proportion of under-35s that own their home. That’s down to higher mortgage rates reducing the number of first-time buyers... 2nd November 2023 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Focus Will falling inflation ultimately push US Treasury yields down? Although Treasury yields have fallen back in recent days, the big picture is that they are still much higher than they were when headline and core inflation peaked more than a year ago in the US. In... 2nd November 2023 · 11 mins read
Canada Economics Update What if all the temporary residents leave? The government today confirmed that it intends to welcome an increasing number of permanent residents in the next couple of years. Even if the number of permanent residents continues to rise, however... 1st November 2023 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update Fed’s focus will shift to rate cuts before long By leaving rates unchanged while continuing to flag the possibility of further tightening to come, the Fed indicated today that it remains in ‘wait and see’ mode. But Chair Jerome Powell appeared to... 1st November 2023 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Treasury term premia may not fall back The Treasury’s Quarterly Refunding announcement (QRA) today may have eased some upward pressure on Treasury term premia, but we think these premia are unlikely to fall further over the coming years. 1st November 2023 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update Sharper fall in wage growth still on the cards The September JOLTS data suggest that the labour market is loosening at a slightly slower pace, but still point to a sharper fall in wage growth ahead. There is little support for the idea that... 1st November 2023 · 2 mins read
