US Commercial Property Rapid Response US Metro Employment (Sep.) September’s employment growth was below the average for 2023 thus far, recording 0.4% 3m/3m across our 30 covered metros once seasonally-adjusted. Meanwhile, office-based jobs remained unchanged on... 1st November 2023 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Oct.) The surprise slump in the ISM manufacturing index to 46.7 in October, from 49.0, suggests the recent recovery in factory-sector activity is fading and supports our view that the upturn in economic... 1st November 2023 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Aug. 2023) Another large gain in house prices in August suggests that the extremely limited supply of existing homes for sale continued to outweigh high mortgage rates. We think monthly gains in house prices... 31st October 2023 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response Employment Cost Index (Q3) The slightly stronger 1.1% increase in the employment cost index in the third quarter is another sign that the earlier rapid easing in labour market conditions may be fading, but the forward-looking... 31st October 2023 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Higher for longer to push all-property cap rates above 5% On the back of upward adjustments to our 10-Year Treasury yield forecasts, we now expect to see a larger increase in cap rates. This will see office cap rates rise to over 6.5% by end-2024, pushing... 30th October 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Worrying signs for the US economy from CMBS spreads A renewed surge in the spreads of private-label commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS), at a time when the spreads of high-yield (HY) corporate bonds have remained fairly subdued (see Chart 1)... 30th October 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily We don’t think it’s game over for AI-related equities Today’s rebound in Amazon’s share price following news that its sales were better than expected in Q3 has shored up the performance of the ‘Magnificent 7’ in what has otherwise been a tough week for... 27th October 2023 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank won’t need to talk tough for much longer The Bank of Canada’s insistence that inflationary risks have increased seems at odds with its new forecasts, which show a large degree of economic slack opening up next year. Our view that the Bank is... 27th October 2023 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Has the AI productivity boom already begun? While we are optimistic about the prospects for an AI-related boom in productivity over the next decade, it’s hard to tell whether the current pick-up in growth is a genuine structural acceleration or... 27th October 2023 · 7 mins read
US Rapid Response Personal Income & Spending (Sep.) The stronger gains in real consumption and the core PCE price index in September are a potential concern for Fed officials, but won’t be enough to convince them to resume raising interest rates next... 27th October 2023 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Update RICS Commercial Market Survey (Q3) The Q3 RICS survey indicated occupier and investment sentiment fell further in Q3, with the latter reflected in weak investment volumes throughout the summer months. But tight credit conditions and a... 26th October 2023 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Update On the relative appeal of US corporate bonds and equities Although US high-yield (HY) corporate bonds are more attractively valued than at any time since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), we doubt they will outperform US equities over the next couple of... 26th October 2023 · 5 mins read
US Housing Market Update Raising our mortgage rate forecasts Our new higher forecasts for US Treasury yields mean that mortgage rates won’t fall as quickly as we previously predicted. While we still expect mortgage rates to decline they are unlikely to fall... 26th October 2023 · 3 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Wage growth still on firm downward trend After the 336,000 jump in non-farm payrolls in September, we expect a more modest 200,000 increase in October. Moreover, despite some strength in labour demand, wage growth continues to ease. 26th October 2023 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update NCREIF Property Index (Q3 2023) The -1.4% quarterly return in Q3 meant that there have now been four consecutive negative quarters for all-property total returns. That figure was dragged down by a 5% q/q fall in office values as all... 26th October 2023 · 3 mins read
