US Commercial Property Update Denver’s poor jobs performance should be short-lived Denver’s poor jobs market performance over the last year appears to have been driven by a combination of a downsizing in Central Bank staff and layoffs in its large telecoms sector. But the former’s... 5th September 2023 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Higher for (only a bit) longer? Despite today’s rebound, the general fall in Treasury yields over the past week against a backdrop of mixed economic data suggests investors could be starting to come round to our view that price... 1st September 2023 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank to pause amid rising recession risks The surprise second-quarter contraction in GDP was partly due to the wildfires but, even without that damage, growth would have been very weak. With the August CFIB Business Barometer showing further... 1st September 2023 · 6 mins read
US Rapid Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Aug.) The further rise in the ISM manufacturing index to a six-month high of 47.6 in August, from 46.4, is another sign that overall activity growth is picking up slightly in the third quarter. But the... 1st September 2023 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly Price pressures easing even as consumers go crazy This week brought more data showing that real economic activity is holding up surprisingly well given surging interest rates but, in part due to the easing in labour market conditions, price pressures... 1st September 2023 · 5 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada GDP (Q2) The surprise contraction in second-quarter GDP leaves little doubt that the Bank of Canada will keep interest rates unchanged next week. With the fall in monthly GDP in June and the apparent... 1st September 2023 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response Employment Report (Aug.) The 187,000 gain in non-farm payrolls, jump in the unemployment rate and slowdown in wage growth in August all add to the evidence that labour market conditions are approaching pre-pandemic norms... 1st September 2023 · 2 mins read
Global Markets Update Is there much scope for the S&P 500 to build on its gains? We think there is ample scope for the US stock market to perform strongly in 2024 and 2025. Admittedly, this year’s rally in the S&P 500 hasn’t had much to do with expectations of faster growth in... 31st August 2023 · 4 mins read
Bank of Canada Watch No need for Bank to hike again Inflation has surprised to the upside of the Bank of Canada’s forecasts but, given signs of slower GDP growth and looser labour market conditions, the Bank should be happy keeping interest rates on... 30th August 2023 · 6 mins read
US Commercial Property Rapid Response US Metro Employment (Jul.) Employment growth in July was near the average seen in 2023 thus far, at a seasonally-adjusted 0.5% 3m/3m across the 30 metros we cover. But the disappointing performance of information jobs continues... 30th August 2023 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response GDP (Q2), ADP (Aug.), Advance Economic Indicators (Jul.) 30th August 2023 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update JOLTS data suggest labour market has normalised The July JOLTS data cast further doubt on the idea that the Fed will need to keep rates high for longer. With the job quits rate now below its pre-pandemic peak and the job openings rate also rapidly... 29th August 2023 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Jun.) The limited supply of existing homes for sale helped house prices rise for the fifth consecutive month in June, according to Case-Shiller. Given the sizeable increase in prices in Q2 and that we... 29th August 2023 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update SAVE to soften blow as student loan payments resume The SAVE student loan plan eases the burden on low-income households and should reduce the economic impact as repayments resume in October. Nonetheless, with the hit to disposable incomes just one of... 29th August 2023 · 3 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed not yet joining markets’ hawkish shift After a relatively cautious speech at Jackson Hole from Fed Chair Jerome Powell and data this week which cast doubt on the idea of an economic resurgence, we still aren’t convinced that the rise in... 25th August 2023 · 7 mins read
