Capital Daily What to make of the bond market meltdown While government bond yields have stabilised today, their sharp rises over recent weeks are increasingly concerning. We think there are four key observations to make at this point. 4th October 2023 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response Mortgage Applications (Sep. 2023) Rising mortgage rates caused mortgage applications for home purchase to slip to a fresh 28-year low in September. With mortgage rates edging above 7.5% in the last week of the month as Treasury yields... 4th October 2023 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Update No support from job growth for Chicago and NYC offices Office-based jobs are on course to underperform total jobs this year for the first time since 2009 and there is a growing risk this could be repeated in 2024, though that is not yet our central... 3rd October 2023 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update JOLTS data still point to easing wage growth Although the job openings rate rebounded sharply in August, we suspect that was more noise than a signal that the labour market is enjoying a resurgence. The rest of the JOLTS report presented a more... 3rd October 2023 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Stakes are higher than normal for 2024 election The stakes could not be higher for this year’s presidential election – with the expected head-to-head rematch between Joe Biden and Donald Trump offering starkly contrasting polices on trade, the... 2nd October 2023 · 5 mins read
US Economic Outlook Fed to cut rates as core inflation normalises We expect GDP growth to slow from 2.1% this year to only 0.8% in 2024, with the economy still likely to experience a near recession around the end of this year. Core inflation will continue to fall... 29th September 2023 · 16 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly On the cusp of recession despite surging population The recent acceleration in immigration may not be enough to keep the economy afloat, with the latest data and surveys pointing to an increased chance that GDP will contract over the rest of the year. 29th September 2023 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Revisions leave economic landscape unchanged The comprehensive revisions to the GDP data did not make a significant change to the macroeconomic story, with the real economy still 6.1% larger than in the fourth quarter of 2019 and the discrepancy... 29th September 2023 · 8 mins read
US Economics Update The impact of yet another government shutdown The direct hit to the economy from even an extended government shutdown beginning next week would be modest. But it could also result in delays to key data releases, including the September employment... 28th September 2023 · 4 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Jobs growth continues on downward trend We forecast a 170,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in September as employment growth continues to trend lower, but a government shutdown may disrupt the release of the data on Friday 6th October. 28th September 2023 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily We doubt long-dated USTs will keep underperforming 10Y Treasuries have underperformed 2Y Treasuries over recent months, bucking the usual pattern after the final Fed hike (if, as we think, the final hike was in July). But we think the stage is now set... 27th September 2023 · 4 mins read
