US Data Response Employment Report (Nov.) November's Employment Report was a painful reality check for those hoping that a meaningful acceleration in economic activity was underway. The truth is that the economic recovery is going nowhere at... 3rd December 2010 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Nov.) The dramatic slowdown in economic growth is preventing any real improvement in labour market conditions. Not only is the economy struggling to generate enough jobs to have a meaningful impact on... 3rd December 2010 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Rebound stalls The housing market recovery appears to have stalled before it even really began. Home sales fell back in October and the renewed downward trend in prices appears to have gathered pace. This is all... 2nd December 2010 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank may regret rate increases If there was still any doubt that the Bank of Canada would leave its key policy rate at 1% next Tuesday, the news this week that third-quarter GDP increased by only 1.0% annualised should have... 2nd December 2010 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Nov.) The resilience of the ISM manufacturing index and the improvement in the ADP employment survey together suggest that the economy is starting to emerge from its summer soft patch. Unfortunately, there... 2nd December 2010 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Rebound stalls The housing market recovery appears to have stalled before it even really began. Home sales fell back in October and the renewed downward trend in prices appears to have gathered pace. This is all... 1st December 2010 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP (Q3 & Sep.) Economic growth has slowed considerably and indicators are pointing to another weak performance in the fourth quarter and sluggish 2% growth next year. Given expected productivity improvements, this... 30th November 2010 · 1 min read
US Data Response Cons. Confidence (Nov.) & Case-Shiller House Prices (Q3) The rise in consumer confidence in November is not consistent with a sustained acceleration in consumption growth at a time when income growth is weak, the unemployment rate is high and a double dip... 30th November 2010 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly US banks’ exposure to Europe has fallen While the health of European banks is once again in question, the financial crisis is becoming a distant memory for US banks. So far this year, they have enjoyed a decent rise in net income. Moreover... 29th November 2010 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack US demand dampens Q3 GDP growth (Canada) Recent export and manufacturing data provide further evidence that real GDP growth slowed further in the third quarter, possibly to as weak as 1% annualised. With little evidence pointing to much... 25th November 2010 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Companies still reluctant to boost hiring Our econometric model suggests that payroll employment increased by around 130,000 in November. That would be consistent with other evidence showing that labour market conditions have yet to improve... 24th November 2010 · 1 min read
US Data Response FHFA House Prices (Q3) & New Home Sales (Oct.) The US economy once again has to contend with a faltering housing market, in which both prices and activity are falling. Thankfully, this second downward leg should be shorter and less severe than the... 24th November 2010 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods Orders & Personal Spending (Oct.) October's durable goods orders and personal spending data suggest that households have started to pick up the baton of growth from businesses. Whether households will be able to carry the burden on... 24th November 2010 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Emerging from the summer slowdown The economy appears to have emerged from its summer soft patch, with the growth of employment and retail sales both accelerating at the start of the fourth quarter. But economic growth is still... 23rd November 2010 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Canada Consumer Price Index (Oct.) While past increases in energy prices led to a stronger than expected inflation report in October, this shock is unlikely to be sustained. The knock-on effect of lower commodity prices next year... 23rd November 2010 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Oct.) Our Capital Economics' measure of M3 is falling year-on-year, albeit at a slower rate. The M2 aggregate is growing at an unusually slow pace, and credit is contracting. Over the past 12 months, the 3... 22nd November 2010 · 1 min read
