US Chart Pack Rising commodity prices having mixed effects Rapidly rising commodity prices are beginning to have a marked impact on inflation, real spending and the external trade balance. Over the past six months, agricultural commodity prices have increased... 20th January 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Dec.) The decent increase in existing home sales in December takes them marginally above the levels seen before sales were boosted and subsequently depressed by the homebuyer tax credit. But high... 20th January 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Monthly Survey of Manufacturing (Nov.) November's manufacturing shipments continue to reflect the slow recovery in manufacturing output and a gradual improvement in capacity utilisation. While sales volumes have gone sideways over the last... 19th January 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Dec.) December's data on housing starts are a bit better than they look. Nonetheless, the combination of persistently weak demand and chronic excess supply means that homebuilding activity will remain... 19th January 2011 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Fed won't call an early halt to QE2 We don't anticipate that the stronger tone of the incoming economic data will prompt the Fed to curtail its plan to buy $600bn of Treasury securities by June at the next FOMC meeting, which concludes... 19th January 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada still sitting on fence The policy statement from the Bank of Canada this morning is unequivocally dovish, no doubt a bit of a disappointment to market analysts, who had expected a more hawkish tone. Indeed, despite more... 18th January 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Is offshoring undermining the labour market recovery? The continued weakness of US jobs growth can partly be explained by offshoring. Tempted by lower labour costs and lower corporate taxes overseas, multinational firms are expanding employment abroad... 18th January 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Dec.) The Fed's QE2 programme of Treasury purchases is yet to have any impact on the broader monetary aggregates, let alone price inflation. The annual growth rate of our Capital Economics' measure of M3... 17th January 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Dec.) The Fed's QE2 programme of Treasury purchases is yet to have any impact on the broader monetary aggregates, let alone price inflation. The annual growth rate of our Capital Economics' measure of M3... 17th January 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Are small businesses missing the recovery? The unexpected dip in the NFIB gauge of small business optimism in December has reignited fears that smaller firms are missing out on the recovery. As we have pointed out before, however, the NFIB... 17th January 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response CPI, Retail Sales & Industrial Production (Dec.) December's retail sales and consumer price reports together suggest that real consumption growth accelerated to 3.8% annualised in the fourth quarter, from 2.4% in the third. If our calculations are... 14th January 2011 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Rising financial risks spell trouble The Bank of Canada is widely expected to hold the key policy interest rate at 1% on Tuesday. More importantly, we expect it to hold the policy rate at 1% throughout this year. This is in contrast to... 14th January 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Nov.) November trade data show that net exports jumped in Q4, due to stronger commodity-related exports and also surprisingly weaker imports. Barring a collapse in December exports, we estimate that net... 13th January 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Nov.) & PPI (Dec.) November's trade figures support our view that annualised GDP growth in the fourth quarter of last year was at least 4%, better than the consensus forecast of just over 3%. Meanwhile, December's... 13th January 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Mortgage rates rebound The rebound in 30-year mortgage rates from a record low of 4.2% to just under 5% has put a small dent in the already fragile outlook for the housing market. (See Chart below.) Admittedly, mortgage... 11th January 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Is consumption still as sensitive to house prices? The second downward leg in house prices, which began last year, is likely to have a smaller impact on consumer spending than the initial plunge both in proportionate and absolute terms. Nonetheless... 10th January 2011 · 1 min read
