US Economics Weekly QE2 will not lead to runaway inflation It is very easy to understand why some fear that the Fed's second-round of quantitative easing will lead to a surge in inflation. But we suspect that the ultimate impact on core inflation will be... 8th November 2010 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Oct.) October's employment report was stronger than expected and, at the margin, reduces the risk we will actually see the unemployment rate edge higher over the coming months. Nevertheless, there is still... 5th November 2010 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Oct.) Having fully recovered the number of jobs lost during the recession, employment growth has now started to slow. Unfortunately, with the economic recovery losing momentum, prospects for employment... 5th November 2010 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update QE2 is no panacea for the US stock market The US stock market’s lukewarm reaction to yesterday’s FOMC statement suggests the scale and timing of the Fed’s additional monetary stimulus have been largely, though not completely, discounted. We... 4th November 2010 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Recovery losing momentum The world economy is set to slow as the fading of the policy stimulus again exposes the underlying fragilities left by the recession. During this period of transition, growth in external demand for... 4th November 2010 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed's QE2 is no game changer The Fed's new programme of asset purchases is not going to pull the US economy out of its current malaise because, given the scale of the balance sheet problems affecting households and financial... 3rd November 2010 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Mid-term elections point to gridlock As widely expected, the Republicans regained control of the House of Reprentatives in yesterday's midterm elections but failed to overturn the Democratic majority in the Senate. The division of power... 3rd November 2010 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manuf. Index (Oct.) & Personal Income (Sep.) The rebound in the ISM manufacturing index in October will not prevent the Fed from announcing more quantitative easing (QE) on Wednesday. September's personal spending and income data show that... 1st November 2010 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed ready to roll the dice again With Republicans set to make significant gains in this week's mid-term elections, our suspicion is that fiscal policy will end up being largely paralysed for the next two years. The Fed should... 1st November 2010 · 1 min read
US Data Response Output growth rebounds from overly-weak July Stronger August GDP data partially reflect temporary factors related to housing, while supporting prospects of stronger and sustained business investment. Overall, there is nothing in this report to... 29th October 2010 · 1 min read
US Data Response GDP (Q3) At 2.0% annualised, third-quarter GDP growth remained well below the economy's trend growth rate of between 2.5% and 3.0%, underlining why many Fed officials think another bout of quantitative easing... 29th October 2010 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Struggling to find a higher gear (Oct 10) Our econometric model indicates that payroll employment increased by a disappointing 50,000 in October, suggesting that the labour market recovery is still struggling to find a higher gear. Private... 28th October 2010 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch QE2 unlikely to have a major economic impact (Oct 10) At this stage, it would be a fairly big shock if the Fed did not announce a new programme of asset purchases at next week's two-day FOMC meeting, which concludes on Wednesday (3rd November). Chairman... 27th October 2010 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods Orders & New Home Sales (Sep.) September's durable goods orders suggest that the industrial recovery is nearing extinction. With the housing market still in no fit state to pick up the baton of growth, the economy is going to... 27th October 2010 · 1 min read
US Data Response Cons. Confidence (Oct.) & House Prices (Aug.) The rebound in equity prices has started to boost consumer confidence, but further gains could be limited by a renewed slide in house prices. Households are unlikely to be in the mood to spend for... 26th October 2010 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Moving closer to deflation The US economy moved a bit closer to deflation in September, when core consumer prices were unchanged for the second month in a row and the annual growth rate fell to a 49-year low of just 0.8%. (See... 25th October 2010 · 1 min read
