US Economic Outlook Muted recovery will eventually lead to deflation The US economic recovery shows few signs of any meaningful acceleration, suggesting that unemployment will remain chronically high and inflation will continue to edge towards zero. There is now a... 22nd November 2010 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Deflation still the real danger Fears that the Fed has put the economy on the path towards rampant inflation looked even more misguided last week when it was announced that core CPI inflation fell to a record low of just 0.6% in... 22nd November 2010 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus What do higher commodity prices mean for the US? The recent sharp rises in agricultural commodity prices will boost inflation a little, help keep real consumption growth subdued and narrow the trade deficit. But the gains in prices seen so far are... 18th November 2010 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices & Housing Starts (Oct.) October's consumer price inflation figures support the recent argument made by several Fed officials, that they would have launched QE2 even if the Fed's mandate was to target price stability alone... 17th November 2010 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production & Producer Prices (Oct.) After almost completely petering out over the past few months, October's industrial production data suggest that the manufacturing recovery may be gathering momentum again, driven by demand for... 16th November 2010 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Canada Monthly Survey of Manufacturing (Sep.) September's manufacturing sales provide further evidence supporting the view that growth in real GDP slowed further in the third quarter, possibly to as weak as 1% annualised, which would make Canada... 16th November 2010 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update US QE2 no boon for Canada The Fed's new programme of asset purchases (QE2) does not change our view that Canada faces an extended period of weak economic performance. We continue to expect GDP growth to stagger along at around... 15th November 2010 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Oct.) & Empire State Index (Nov.) October's retail sales are a fairly encouraging sign that consumption growth may be starting to gain some traction. But households' real spending power will soon be hit by higher gasoline and food... 15th November 2010 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed criticism over the top but not all unfounded The Fed's quantitative easing may be unconventional, but it is designed to work through the same channels as conventional changes in short-term interest rates; by lowering long-term interest rates... 15th November 2010 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Has the US already begun a “currency war”? The first day of the G20 Summit has been overshadowed by fresh accusations that the US is deliberately engaging in a policy of weakening the dollar and that this is somehow underhand or reprehensible... 11th November 2010 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Firms' high ROE does not justify a re-rating of US equities US nonfarm, nonfinancial companies have enjoyed a rapid increase in their return on equity (ROE). This does not, however, imply that the stock market is attractively valued. For one thing, the... 11th November 2010 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Sep.) September's US international trade figures may give Chinese officials travelling to Seoul for tomorrow's G20 summit something to cling to. But the key point is that the US bilateral trade deficit with... 10th November 2010 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Canada International Merchandise Trade (Sep.) September trade data indicate that net exports were a significant drag on thirdquarter real economic growth and leading indicators point to more of the same in the near future. Indeed, with prospects... 10th November 2010 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed's Survey shows no evidence of loan rebound The Fed's latest survey of Senior Loan Officers reveals a disturbing drop off in the demand for new loans and the renewed tightening of credit conditions for residential mortgages and other consumer... 8th November 2010 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Bouncing along the bottom The housing market recovery has yet to begin with activity more or less bouncing along the bottom. Home sales did edge further above their post-tax credit low in September, but they remained 20% below... 8th November 2010 · 1 min read
