US Economics Weekly Manufacturing: From leader to laggard? The manufacturing sector has been one of the few success stories in the otherwise disappointing economic recovery. But the stellar manufacturing recovery is fading so fast that there is a chance it... 25th October 2010 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What will the weaker dollar do for US corporate profits? The dollar’s slide is a welcome boost for US companies. A weaker currency not only allows exporters to gain market share and boost their margins, but also benefits those firms selling goods at home... 21st October 2010 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Outlook Not out of the woods yet A double-dip in both housing activity and prices is underway. Prices are likely to fall for the next 12 months, while activity will remain weak for at least three years. 19th October 2010 · 1 min read
US Economics Update More dovish Bank of Canada may yet ease again (Oct 10) The Bank of Canada appears some way from further monetary tightening. Economic conditions would have to improve substantially and by enough to offset the increasing downside risks to future inflation... 19th October 2010 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Sep.) The annual rate of decline in our Capital Economics' measure of M3 continues to slow. (See Chart below.) There is a good chance that the widely expected second round of quantitative easing from the... 19th October 2010 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Sep 10) Manufacturing output contracted by 0.2% m/m in September, illustrating that the previously robust recovery in the factory sector is definitely behind us now and this could even be the start of a... 18th October 2010 · 1 min read
US Data Response Prices start to fall back (Oct 10) House prices have started to fall back in response to the plunge in sales seen since the homebuyer tax credit expired in April. Both the Case-Shiller and FHFA indices showed prices fell in July. (See... 18th October 2010 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly What could the foreclosure crisis mean? The recent freezing of foreclosure proceedings by some major banks may not necessarily be a disaster. But we are mindful that in its early stages the sub-prime crisis did not look too severe either... 18th October 2010 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices & Retail Sales (Sep.) September's consumer prices and retail sales figures will do little to ease the Fed's concerns that inflation is too low and that economic growth is too weak. Indeed, in a speech today Fed Chairman... 15th October 2010 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Aug.) & PPI (Sep.) The widening in the international trade deficit in August, and in particular the jump in the bilateral deficit with China to a record high, will only fuel growing speculation of a currency war. 14th October 2010 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Prices start to fall back House prices have started to fall back in response to the plunge in sales seen since the homebuyer tax credit expired in April. Both the Case-Shiller and FHFA indices showed prices fell in July. (See... 13th October 2010 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Prices start to fall back (Oct 10) House prices have started to fall back in response to the plunge in sales seen since the homebuyer tax credit expired in April. Both the Case-Shiller and FHFA indices showed prices fell in July. (See... 13th October 2010 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly No mortgage rate miracle The Fed has not even announced a second round of quantitative easing, yet 30-year mortgage rates have plunged to record lows. But even the mortgage bargain of a lifetime may not be enough to drag the... 11th October 2010 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Sep.) September's payroll report adds to the evidence that the recovery is losing what little forward momentum it had and will harden the resolve of the more dovish Fed officials to press forward with... 8th October 2010 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed edging towards more QE It is looking increasingly likely that the Fed will announce a new round of quantitative easing, probably before the end of the year. Our guess is that it will opt for a smaller scale open-ended... 4th October 2010 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manuf. Index (Sep.) & Personal Income (Aug.) There is nothing in the economic reports released today to change our view that GDP growth will stumble along at a 2% annualised pace for some considerable time yet. 1st October 2010 · 1 min read
