US Housing Market Focus House prices still have further to fall House prices have diverged from the levels that might be justified by income fundamentals in six periods over the last 35 years, but none of these episodes can be explained by the same set of factors... 2nd February 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Jan.) Today's data releases illustrate the two-speed nature of this recovery, with the manufacturing sector leading the way and the construction sector lagging far behind. 1st February 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Food prices will push headline inflation higher We estimate that surging agricultural commodity prices will drive consumer food inflation to around 5% later this year, from just under 2%, which would add around 0.8 percentage points to headline CPI... 31st January 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed's survey shows big jump in demand for business loans The Fed's latest survey of Senior Loan Officers suggests that we could see a marked turnaround in business lending this year, which would presumably boost investment and possibly even employment too... 31st January 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Homeownership & Vacancy Rates (Q4) The declining homeownership rate and the rising vacancy rate support our view that the combination of weak housing demand and high supply will continue to undermine house prices this year. Conversely... 31st January 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Nov.) November GDP data confirm the likely pick-up in fourth quarter economic growth to more than 2.0% from 1.3% in the third. While a stronger US economy will help Canadian industry in the near-term, we... 31st January 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fiscal outlook continues to deteriorate The latest Federal budget projections from the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office underline the terrible state of the public finances. This year's deficit is now expected to reach $1,480bn, or 9... 31st January 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response GDP (Q4 1st Estimate) The acceleration in GDP growth to 3.2% annualised in the fourth quarter, from 2.6% in the third, confirms that the economic recovery regained some lost momentum over the closing stages of last year. 28th January 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Poor quality of new jobs is an additional concern Over the past year, payroll employment has increased by just 1.1 million, reversing only a small number of the 8.3 million jobs lost during the recession. What makes the labour market recovery even... 27th January 2011 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Has the rebound in payrolls been even weaker? Our econometric model suggests that payroll employment increased by around 125,000 in January. That would be in line with the average gain in the previous three months and suggest that the recent... 27th January 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods Orders (Dec.) December's durable goods figures are frankly very suspicious looking. According to the report, new orders for non-defence aircraft dropped from $5,019 million in November to an impossibly low $24... 27th January 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed biding its time The tone of the Fed's latest policy statement suggests that neither the most recent pick up in economic growth nor the continued surge in commodity prices have had much of an impact on officials... 26th January 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Dec.) The impressive increase in new home sales in December is mainly due to the rush to beat the deadline of a tax credit in California. Without that boost, new sales would have been broadly unchanged... 26th January 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response House Prices (Nov.) The falls in house prices seen towards the end of last year are likely to continue throughout this year. We think that prices will fall by just over 5% in 2011, leaving them a little less than 5%... 25th January 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Dec.) Higher energy prices and some base-year effects were behind the pick-up in headline inflation in December. Disinflationary pressures from excess capacity will continue to restrain core inflation... 25th January 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Economy still years from recovering "lost" output This week's release of GDP for the fourth quarter will confirm that the real economy has finally returned to the size it was before the recession struck. But it will be some years yet before the US... 24th January 2011 · 1 min read
