US Housing Market Rapid Response Housing Starts (Jan. 2024) Housing starts fell by the largest amount since April 2020 in January, led by a huge drop in multi-family starts. We suspect the multi-family sector will continue to be a drag on new development this... 16th February 2024 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Offices still the most likely source of distress While we expect the office and multifamily sectors to account for the lion’s share of distressed assets over the next couple of years, there is an important distinction between the two. Unlike... 15th February 2024 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update Nearing the trough in house prices Although house prices continued to fall in January, lower mortgage rates are beginning to support affordability and stimulate home sales. With the sales-to-new listing ratio now pointing to positive... 15th February 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Slowing US economy may help Treasuries rally Weaker economic data from the US have bolstered our view that the Federal Reserve will be able to cut rates by more than investors currently expect. As a result, we continue to think that Treasury... 15th February 2024 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response Retail Sales (Jan.) The 0.8% m/m fall in retail sales in January might partly reflect the unwinding of a previous weather-related distortion, but should temper recent suggestions of an economic resurgence. We continue to... 15th February 2024 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Mind the Gap: Markets should focus on PCE not CPI The strong reaction to the January CPI data demonstrates that markets still don’t fully comprehend that the Fed is focused on the alternative PCE measure of inflation. While core CPI inflation was... 14th February 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Focus Have we reached the end of the housing correction? Housing markets in developed economies have perplexed forecasters since 2019. The boom in prices in 2020-22 was not anticipated, and the fall in prices since has been smaller than expected. In this... 14th February 2024 · 17 mins read
Capital Daily Inflation surprise unlikely to derail AI bubble for long Today’s hotter-than-expected US inflation data makes for another bump in the road for US bond and equity markets. But we think a full-scale return to the bad old days of the 2021-23 inflation scare is... 13th February 2024 · 5 mins read
US Rapid Response Consumer Prices (Jan.) The unexpectedly-strong 0.4% m/m increase in core CPI prices in January will feed the “last mile is the hardest” narrative – with core CPI inflation unchanged at 3.9% – but, other than a very... 13th February 2024 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Read my lips: No new tax cuts Speculation will inevitably build that a Donald Trump victory in this year’s presidential election would be followed, once again, by large-scale tax cuts. With the Federal budget outlook in a far... 12th February 2024 · 5 mins read
US Commercial Property Rapid Response Commercial Property Lending (January) There was a surprisingly sharp increase in the amount of outstanding commercial real estate (CRE) debt held by commercial banks in January, which rose by $10.7bn, the largest monthly increase since... 12th February 2024 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Labour market strength buys the Bank more time The strength of the labour market in January is another reason to think that the Bank of Canada can wait a little longer before it starts to cut interest rates. We now forecast the first interest rate... 9th February 2024 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar inches higher even as US equities hit new milestone While the dollar has fallen back a touch over the past couple of days, it has held on to most of its post-payrolls gains. The DXY index is now up about 3% on the year, having regained roughly half its... 9th February 2024 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly Bond vigilantes fiddle, as budget burns New projections released by the CBO this week show that although the Federal budget deficit is expected to be a bit smaller than previously assumed, it remains on an unsustainable path. Moreover, with... 9th February 2024 · 9 mins read
