Capital Daily Equities still at the mercy of inflation The adverse reaction in the stock market to today’s report on US consumer prices suggests inflation still matters to investors in equities, even if it has become a less important concern for them than... 11th September 2024 · 4 mins read
US Fed Watch Fed to kick off loosening cycle with a 25bp cut With the labour market data more consistent with an economic slowdown rather than a collapse, we think the Fed will begin its rate cutting cycle with a measured 25bp reduction at next week’s FOMC... 11th September 2024 · 9 mins read
US Housing Market Chart Pack US Housing Market Chart Pack (Aug. 2024) A pullback in buyer demand paired with rising supply has cooled the market, causing house price inflation to ease in the first half of the year. With the spring selling season now over, though, and... 11th September 2024 · 1 min read
US Rapid Response Consumer Prices (Aug) The 0.28% m/m increase in core CPI in August appears to be consistent with a slightly below-target 0.15% m/m increase in the Fed’s preferred core PCE deflator measure. But we doubt that modest... 11th September 2024 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily A few thoughts on the “Fed Put” & markets Further mixed-to-weak US economic data and sharp falls in the equity markets last week means that, rightly or wrongly, the so-called “Fed put” is now back in the spotlight. Our sense is that it would... 9th September 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily We think the post-payroll market jitters are overdone Although today’s news about the US labour market disappointed investors, we think it is in line with higher Treasury yields and a rebound in US stocks. 6th September 2024 · 4 mins read
US Economics Weekly August jobs report just about enough for the Fed The data releases this week did not signal a clear winner in the 25bp versus 50bp cut debate, but the speech from Governor Christopher Waller nonetheless suggests that the small improvement in the... 6th September 2024 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank may not blink despite higher unemployment The communications from the Bank of Canada this week suggest that the rise in the unemployment rate in August is unlikely to be enough to trigger larger interest rate cuts, which is probably a sign... 6th September 2024 · 4 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Labour Force Survey (Aug.) The rebound in employment in August should soothe fears about the risk that the economy is taking a turn for the worse, although the 0.2%-point jump in the unemployment rate to 6.6% presents clear... 6th September 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Employment Report (Aug.) The 142,000 gain in non-farm payroll employment in August was probably just enough to tip the Fed in favour of a measured 25bp rate cut this month, rather than a more dramatic move, but the labour... 6th September 2024 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of yield curve “disinversion” The Treasury yield curve has steepened in recent weeks amid growing recession concerns, but we doubt one will materialise this time. We expect the curve to steepen further over the next year or so... 5th September 2024 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response ISM Services Index (Aug. 2024) Although the ISM services index was essentially unchanged in August, that is still something of a relief following the weak ISM manufacturing report earlier this week and the gloomy tone of the Fed's... 5th September 2024 · 2 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (Sep. 2024) The economy looks to be entering a period of below-potential growth, characterised by excess supply in the goods and labour markets. This will keep downward pressure on core inflation, which we think... 5th September 2024 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack Commodities Chart Pack (Sep. 2024) OPEC+ to face stick or twist moment at next meeting The recent slide in oil prices, to a 14-month low of $73pb at the time of writing, makes the looming OPEC+ decision on whether to unwind its... 5th September 2024 · 1 min read
US Economics Update JOLTS shows continued labour market normalisation Although job openings fell sharply in July, the totality of the JOLTS data points to a labour market that continues to normalise, rather than one rapidly deteriorating. That leaves it up to the August... 4th September 2024 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update Cracks in oil demand to put OPEC+ to the test The latest drop in oil prices, coupled with our expectation for global demand to remain weak, will make it practically impossible for OPEC+ to increase output while keeping Brent crude prices above... 4th September 2024 · 4 mins read
