Capital Daily Yield curve phoney war redux; how different is this time? Despite the ongoing surge in long-term government bond yields, the US yield curve remains inverted. As such, it is worth revisiting what the implications are for financial markets, and how this... 18th April 2024 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Chart Pack US Housing Market Chart Pack (Mar. 2024) Even if mortgage rates fall to 6.5% this year as we expect, homeowners will still be discouraged from listing their home, ensuring supply remains tight. At the same time, mortgaged buyer demand should... 18th April 2024 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Apr. 2024) The recent upturn in activity and employment growth and the resilience of core inflation suggest that the Fed won't start cutting interest rates until later this year. But although it is taking a... 18th April 2024 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US Existing Home Sales (Mar. 2024) The fall in existing home sales in March was triggered by mortgage rates climbing back above 7% the month before. Even so, transactions remain above the trough at the end of last year, consistent with... 18th April 2024 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update Freeland spends what she can in Budget 2024 Although Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland stuck to her previous pledge to keep the budget deficit below $40bn in the new fiscal year, she nonetheless spent the small windfall afforded to the... 16th April 2024 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily The correlation between bond yields and equites The correlation between changes in bond yields and in equities has rarely been so negative, and we suspect this will continue as yields fall back and equities rebound. 16th April 2024 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Update Canada Housing Watch (Apr. 2024) The government’s policies to boost affordability for first-time buyers will have only a modest impact on demand, but they still add to our sense that house prices will rise in the coming years. While... 16th April 2024 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US Housing Starts (Mar. 2024) Housing starts weren’t able to build on the strong performance of the previous month in March, falling by the largest monthly amount since April 2020 in the early days of the pandemic. Although some... 16th April 2024 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Consumer Prices (Mar. 2024) The March CPI data showed the third consecutive month of muted gains in the Bank of Canada’s preferred core inflation measures, suggesting that there is a growing chance of the Bank cutting interest... 16th April 2024 · 3 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Manufacturing Sales & Wholesale Sales (Feb. 2024) 15th April 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Retail Sales (Mar.) The strong rise in retail sales in March and upward revision to February’s data will further support the Fed’s stance that there is no rush to start lowering interest rates. 15th April 2024 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed on hold until later this year The third consecutive 0.4% m/m increase in core CPI in March, coming on the heels of the 303,000 surge in non-farm payrolls, fuelled fears that a pick-up in the real economy is now translating into a... 12th April 2024 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Budget unlikely to move the needle for interest rates Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland’s pledge to create the conditions needed for lower interest rates means the government is unlikely to announce much new near-term spending in Budget 2024 next week... 12th April 2024 · 6 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Higher yields might not stop value underperforming growth We think ‘value’ stocks will generally underperform their ‘growth’ counterparts while a bubble in the US stock market continues to inflate, even if Treasury yields don’t drop back in the way that we... 12th April 2024 · 4 mins read
