US Housing Market Rapid Response

Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Nov. 2023)

The marked slowdown in house prices in November was the first sign of a response in prices to the spike in mortgage rates a month earlier.

30th January 2024 · 2 mins read

Capital Daily

The best days for US IG corporate bonds may soon be over

We think the best days for US investment-grade (IG) corporate bonds will soon be over.

29th January 2024 · 5 mins read

US Commercial Property Update

NCREIF Property Index (Q4 2023)

The worsening in total returns to -3.0% q/q in Q4 was consistent with our expectations of bigger-than-average year-end markdowns. But the major takeaway was that the data and NCREIF’s release notes...

29th January 2024 · 3 mins read

Global Markets Update

With cuts almost in sight, we still see scope for DM yields to fall

We think the recent falls in long-dated government bond yields across developed market (DM) economies will extend over the remainder of this year, as central banks generally cut by more than investors...

29th January 2024 · 4 mins read

US Economics Focus

Inflation: Mission accomplished?

We maintain a high conviction that core PCE inflation will be back to the 2% target by mid-2024. Despite claims that “the last mile will be the hardest”, core PCE prices have already been running at a...

26th January 2024 · 20 mins read

Capital Daily

US economy not threatening to prick a stock market bubble

Similar to the late 1990s, we think the economic backdrop in the US won’t stand in the way of a bubble inflating in the S&P 500. But unlike then, we doubt it will help the dollar much.

26th January 2024 · 5 mins read

US Economics Weekly

Immaculate disinflation almost complete

It is hard to say which is more remarkable: that GDP growth accelerated last year following the Fed’s most aggressive tightening campaign in decades, or that core inflation nevertheless fell back to...

26th January 2024 · 6 mins read

US Rapid Response

Personal Income & Spending (Dec.)

The December income and spending data confirm that core PCE inflation has been running at an annualised pace in line with the Fed’s 2% target for seven months now. This reiterates the message that...

26th January 2024 · 2 mins read

Canada Economics Weekly

Monetary policy tanker slowly turning

The outlook for monetary policy all depends on whether the Bank of Canada is willing to act based on where it thinks shelter inflation is heading, rather than its current rate. The Bank’s...

26th January 2024 · 5 mins read

US Commercial Property Update

RICS Commercial Market Survey (Q4)

The Q4 RICS survey suggested that occupier and investment sentiment remained pessimistic in Q4. We expect sentiment will be subdued in at least the first half of 2024, with credit conditions staying...

25th January 2024 · 3 mins read

US Employment Report Preview

Downward trend set to intensify

A reversal of the earlier boost from unseasonably mild December weather probably weighed on non-farm payroll growth in January. We expect a more muted 150,000 increase. The annual benchmark revisions...

25th January 2024 · 4 mins read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

New Home Sales (Dec. 2023)

New home sales rebounded in December, reversing nearly all of their decline in the previous month when mortgage borrowing costs were much closer to their 8% peak.

25th January 2024 · 2 mins read

US Rapid Response

GDP (Q4)

Although GDP growth came in hotter than expect in the fourth quarter, underlying inflation continued to slow, with annualised core PCE inflation running at the 2% target in the fourth quarter. The...

25th January 2024 · 3 mins read

US Housing Market Update

Questions from our latest US housing drop-in

We held a 20-minute online briefing this week to discuss our new forecast for the US housing market in 2024. You can watch the recording of the “drop-in” here. This Update recaps our answers to the...

25th January 2024 · 4 mins read

Canada Economics Update

Rate cuts are coming into view

The Bank of Canada’s decision to drop its tightening bias today is the first step toward interest rate cuts, particularly as the Bank also hinted that it may be willing to look through elevated...

24th January 2024 · 3 mins read