US Economics Weekly

Revisions clear up some nagging doubts

Leading up to this week’s annual revisions to the national accounts, we were attuned of the risk that the expenditure-based real GDP measure might be revised lower to match up with the income-based...

27th September 2024 · 6 mins read

Capital Daily

Fewer cuts may push US & EZ yields up & the EUR sideways

We don’t see compelling reasons for policymakers in the US or the euro-zone to lower policy rates as much as market pricing suggests, so we expect long-dated bond yields there to edge up before long...

27th September 2024 · 4 mins read

Canada Economics Weekly

More reasons for the Bank to favour a 50bp cut

The upside surprise to GDP growth in July does not change the big picture that quarterly growth is likely to be much weaker than the Bank of Canada anticipated, while a host of other data releases...

27th September 2024 · 4 mins read

Canada Rapid Response

Canada GDP (Jul.)

Although the rise in GDP in July was stronger than expected, the preliminary estimate of unchanged GDP in August suggests that the momentum was short lived and puts third-quarter growth on track to...

27th September 2024 · 2 mins read

US Rapid Response

Income & Spending (Aug)

As we calculated based on the earlier price data releases, the core PCE deflator increased by a muted 0.13% m/m in August, with the headline deflator up by 0.09% m/m. Admittedly, although the monthly...

27th September 2024 · 1 min read

US Employment Report Preview

Employment growth to ease further

We think labour market conditions continued to ease in September, with a 100,000 rise in non-farm payrolls and the unemployment rate edging up to 4.3%.

26th September 2024 · 4 mins read

Climate Economics Update

Notes from LSE Environment Week

Ahead of COP29 in November, discussions have been taking place at events in London and New York this week on all things climate. We attended the LSE’s Environment Week to hear the thoughts of...

26th September 2024 · 3 mins read

Global Economic Outlook

A soft patch

The global economy has hit a soft patch with the euro-zone virtually stagnant, the US labour market flagging and China rationing its policy stimulus. We expect this weakness to persist around the turn...

26th September 2024 · 44 mins read

US Rapid Response

GDP (Q2 3rd Est. & Annual Revision) & Durable Goods (Aug)

At first glance the annual revision to the national accounts doesn’t appear to have had much of an impact – with second-quarter GDP growth left unchanged at 3.0% and core PCE inflation unchanged at 2...

26th September 2024 · 2 mins read

US Commercial Property Update

Innovation clusters to drive flex R&D performance

The flex industrial subsector outperformed most other property types over the last cycle. Its underlying characteristics mean demand and returns will continue to be healthy ahead, though the winning...

25th September 2024 · 3 mins read

Asset Allocation Outlook

Asset allocation as the Fed cuts and the US votes

We expect equities to fare best among the major asset classes we track through the end of 2025, as the AI bubble reinflates. We suspect government and corporate bonds will generally do less well...

25th September 2024 · 28 mins read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

New Home Sales (Aug. 2024)

New home sales dropped back slightly in August, which always seemed likely after the 10% surge in transactions the month before, driven by pent-up buyers responding to lower borrowing costs. Still...

25th September 2024 · 2 mins read

Canada Economic Outlook

Weak growth to prompt more aggressive loosening

With the inflation battle all but won, weak GDP growth will force the Bank of Canada into more aggressive action, with a couple of 50bp interest rate cuts to end this year. We expect the Bank to adopt...

25th September 2024 · 14 mins read

US Economics Update

Port strike won’t rock the boat

The strike at East and Gulf Coast ports is unlikely to trigger major economic disruption. Many retailers have made plans in anticipation of the strike and our sense is that, this close to the election...

25th September 2024 · 3 mins read

US Housing Market Update

Sellers lose grip on the market

Increased supply and weak demand are both contributing to the slowdown in house price growth. The recent sharp drop in mortgage rates should cause the market to retighten, but it will take time for...

24th September 2024 · 4 mins read