Europe Economics Update What to make of the EU budget dispute We think the dispute with Hungary and Poland over the EU’s multiannual budget will be resolved one way or another and the EU will start to disburse the Recovery Fund during the first half of next year... 4th December 2020 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Nov.) & Switzerland GDP (Q3) The strong set of manufacturing PMIs from Switzerland and the Nordics in November suggests that the industrial rebound gathered momentum in Q4, in keeping with the picture in German industry. This... 1st December 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Consumer Confidence (Nov.) The fall in consumer confidence in November suggests that good news about the vaccine has not done much to improve sentiment in the euro-zone. With the virus still spreading quickly and lockdowns... 20th November 2020 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway GDP (Q3) This morning’s release of Q3 GDP data from Norway confirmed that the mainland economy bounced back strongly over the summer. However, new restrictions both locally and in key trade partners mean that... 17th November 2020 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Vaccine offers hope, but clouds darken over Q4 The vaccine offers hope of faster growth next year than we have factored into our current forecasts. However, the recent surge in virus cases in Switzerland, the rising strain on the healthcare sector... 12th November 2020 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden Consumer Prices (Oct.) The October inflation data from Sweden do not move the needle for policymakers. However, the persistent weakness of underlying price pressures is likely to remain a headache for the Riksbank over the... 12th November 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update High COVID-19 cases point to long-lasting restrictions While an effective vaccine would greatly improve the outlook for next year, the latest data show that the virus is still spreading rapidly. Unless this is reversed soon, the one-month lockdowns in... 10th November 2020 · 4 mins read
Europe Chart Pack New lockdowns weighing on activity and inflation Euro-zone economic activity looks set to slow sharply again in November and to remain weak for a while beyond that. The number of patients in intensive care units is rising rapidly and we suspect that... 5th November 2020 · 12 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden GDP (Q3 2020) The 4.3% q/q increase in Swedish GDP in Q3 was below both our and the consensus forecast, but leaves the economy on track for a comparatively shallow drop in output this year – broadly in line with... 5th November 2020 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Swiss recovery at risk of reversal A continued surge in virus cases has forced Swiss and Nordic governments to tighten restrictions this week and there is a risk that Switzerland follows in France and Germany’s footsteps and imposes a... 30th October 2020 · 6 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Survey (Oct.) & Belgium GDP (Q3 2020) The fact that the EC’s euro-zone Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) was unchanged in October was a bit surprising given the surge in virus cases and associated restrictions in recent weeks. With... 29th October 2020 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden Economic Tendency Indicator (Oct.) The rise in Sweden’s Economic Tendency Indicator (ETI) in October came as a bit of a surprise given the recent surge in COVID-19 cases there and suggests that the economic recovery – which monthly GDP... 28th October 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response ECB Bank Lending Survey (Q3 2020) The ECB’s Bank Lending Survey show that bank lending conditions tightened in Q3. And there is a growing risk that they tighten further in Q4, just as the economic activity has begun to slow again. 27th October 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Consumer Confidence (Oct.) Given the surge in virus cases and new restrictions over the past few weeks, it was no surprise that euro-zone consumer confidence deteriorated in October. With governments ramping up their... 22nd October 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook Second wave blows recovery off course The second wave of coronavirus has caused the recovery to stall and we forecast euro-zone GDP to stagnate for the next six months, with an outright recession a significant downside risk. We think... 19th October 2020 · 35 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Recoveries slowing, but Nordics are still well placed The slowdown in the pace of monthly GDP growth in Norway in August was driven in large part by a fall in consumer spending. The post-lockdown spending splurge on goods appears to have peaked before... 13th October 2020 · 5 mins read
