Europe Data Response ECB Bank Lending Survey (Q1 2021) The Q1 ECB Bank Lending Survey revealed that the demand for bank credit fell in early 2021, and banks continued to tighten their lending standards as the pandemic dragged on and vaccine rollouts... 20th April 2021 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economic Outlook Still running ahead of the pack As elsewhere in mainland Europe, the slow vaccine rollout means that the rebound in domestic activity is unlikely to get underway in earnest until Q3. Denmark is a noteworthy exception; its... 16th April 2021 · 13 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook Euro-zone being left behind The slow vaccination programme has left the euro-zone well behind the US and UK incoming out of the health crisis. We think the economy will not expand at all in Q2 and GDP growth will be much weaker... 15th April 2021 · 35 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Rotation trade to resume and to drag the franc lower The partial unwinding in the reflation trade in recent weeks has stopped the decline in the Swiss franc in its tracks. Having depreciated against both the US dollar and the euro since the start of... 14th April 2021 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden Consumer Prices (Mar.) Swedish inflation rose closer to the Riksbank’s 2% target in March, in line with expectations. As it should only breach the target temporarily, we continue to expect the Riksbank to keep the repo rate... 14th April 2021 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway Consumer Prices (Mar.) The fact that core inflation in Norway came in above target for the fifteenth month in a row in March came as no surprise. However, it underlines that the Norges Bank is in a very different place to... 9th April 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Still waiting for a shot in the arm… The euro-zone economy is doing better than many expected given that much of the hospitality and travel sector is still closed due to virus-related restrictions. Indeed, the latest business surveys... 8th April 2021 · 12 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden GDP Indicator (Feb.) Monthly GDP data from Sweden for February indicate that output it is all but certain to have expanded in Q1. The recent surge in virus cases casts a cloud on the government’s plans to ease... 8th April 2021 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Switzerland CPI & Manufacturing PMIs (Mar.) Swiss inflation looks set to continue its upward trend over the coming months, but with temporary factors likely to fade in H2, and underlying price pressures likely to remain much weaker, this won’t... 1st April 2021 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden ETI (Mar.) & Swiss KOF (Mar.) The latest business surveys indicate that Sweden and Switzerland ended Q1 on strong footings, helped by buoyant conditions in their manufacturing sectors. 30th March 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Consumer Confidence (Mar.) The sharp increase in euro-zone consumer confidence in March came as a big surprise given tighter restrictions across the bloc and ongoing difficulties with the AstraZeneca vaccine. That said... 24th March 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Greece: easing no game changer, yet The easing of virus restrictions in Greece this week – despite rising case numbers – is unlikely to change the picture for Q1; the economy probably contracted. Moreover, if it leads to a faster spread... 23rd March 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade (Jan.) The euro-zone’s goods trade surplus narrowed in January, partly reversing some of the widening since last April. Looking ahead, goods exports should grow fairly steadily this year on the back of the... 18th March 2021 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden Consumer Prices (Feb.) Swedish inflation came in weaker than expected in February, and we continue to expect the Riksbank to keep the repo rate on hold for the foreseeable future. 15th March 2021 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Making sense of the DNB’s “technical adjustments” The recent technical adjustments to the Danish Nationalbank’s monetary toolkit simplify the policy framework and are not intended to alter the policy stance. But with the Danish krone at its strongest... 12th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack ECB holds the key for Swedish and Swiss yields The increases in Swiss, Swedish, and Norwegian government bond yields over the past month or so have illustrated the extent to which smaller bond markets get dragged around by global conditions. As... 11th March 2021 · 5 mins read
