Europe Data Response EC Consumer Confidence (Apr.) The slump in the EC euro-zone consumer confidence index in April was another record decline. However, the index excludes data for Italy and almost certainly understates the true extent of the... 22nd April 2020 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economic Outlook Comparatively well placed to weather the carnage Low levels of government debt mean that Switzerland and the Nordic economies are comparatively well placed to withstand the acute stresses being placed on the public finances – particularly compared... 21st April 2020 · 16 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook Slump puts new strains on currency union The lockdown has triggered the biggest economic slump since WW2 with activity likely to drop by around 20% in Q2. As the peak of the epidemic passes, restrictions will be lifted gradually, and... 21st April 2020 · 29 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Scale of the economic carnage is becoming apparent The scale of the economic damage in Switzerland and the Nordics following the imposition of draconian virus-related containment measures is becoming all too apparent. Business surveys have plunged... 8th April 2020 · 5 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Deepest downturn since WW2 The euro-zone is experiencing an unprecedented collapse in economic activity. We suspect that GDP will be roughly 25% below its pre-crisis level during the lockdowns, with the scale of devastation... 6th April 2020 · 12 mins read
Europe Economics Update Taking stock of Italian COVID-19 infections data The number of new confirmed Covid-19 cases in Italy has been on a downward trend, raising hopes that the lockdown is beginning to work. In this Update, we put the numbers in context. 31st March 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Mar.) & Ger. Unemp. (Mar.) The inflation rate in the euro-zone took a leg down in March, largely due to the slump in oil prices. With the economy taking on the verge of an unprecedented nose-dive, we expect headline inflation... 31st March 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response France Bus. Conf. (Mar.) & German Cons. Conf. (Apr.) The largest-ever fall in French business confidence in March leaves the survey pointing to a severe slump in activity at the end of Q1. But the reality is almost certainly much worse than this. 26th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Consumer Confidence (Mar.) The plunge in the EC euro-zone consumer confidence index in March – its largest fall on record – leaves it consistent with household spending plummeting. Given the continued fast spread of the virus... 23rd March 2020 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Policy response to COVID-19 ramping up The policy landscape has changed dramatically over recent weeks and is shifting by the hour. Amid a raft of announcements in recent days, Denmark has grasped the nettle by closing schools and... 12th March 2020 · 4 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Waiting for the contagion Other than a lengthening of supplier delivery times in February, there is little evidence that the shutdown in the Chinese economy has had much impact on the euro-zone economy so far. Indeed, business... 4th March 2020 · 12 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Jan.) & Final PMIs (Feb.) The increase in euro-zone retail sales data in January suggests that household consumption picked up at the beginning of the year, but we suspect that spending will drop in Q2 as the Covid-19 virus... 4th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Switzerland CPI & Sweden Services PMI (Feb.) The return of deflation to Switzerland in February will only strengthen the policymakers’ resolve to prevent the franc from rising much further. Following yesterday’s emergency rate cut by the Fed... 4th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden, Finland & Denmark GDP (Q4), Swiss KOF (Feb.) The Swedish economy ended last year on the back foot, and a combination of the rising threat from the coronavirus, weak growth in the neighbouring euro-zone, and persistently below-target inflation... 28th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Business and Consumer Survey (Feb.) The rise in the euro-zone Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) for February adds to the evidence that the coronavirus has had little impact on the economy so far. But the survey was conducted before the... 27th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Portugal’s economy to slow but remain a bright spot Portugal’s economy has been a relative bright spot in the euro-zone in recent years and we think it will fare better than average again this year. Nonetheless, quarterly GDP growth looks set to slow... 25th February 2020 · 3 mins read
