Nordic & Swiss Data Response Switzerland Industrial Production (Q4 2019) While pharmaceuticals output supported Swiss manufacturing again in Q4, conditions in the rest of the sector weakened at the end of last year. With the German industrial recession likely to drag on... 20th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Riksbank still in love with zero While the Riksbank left policy unchanged this week, we suspect that weak GDP growth and inflation will prompt it to ease policy soon. Next week’s data are likely to show that inflation fell in Sweden... 14th February 2020 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Coronavirus driving financial market moves The initial financial market reaction in Switzerland and the Nordics to the coronavirus followed the familiar pattern during times of uncertainty: the Swiss franc rose and Swiss bond yields tumbled on... 13th February 2020 · 10 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update ECB loosening set to support Danish krone The step-up in interventions by Denmark’s Nationalbank (DNB) to strengthen the krone in January puts to bed the idea that the Bank is comfortable with allowing the krone to trade in a more symmetric... 6th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Coronavirus a downside risk to already weak growth The euro-zone economy ended 2019 on a weak note and the outlook for early 2020 remains gloomy. Euro-zone GDP slowed from 0.3% q/q in Q3 to 0.1% q/q in Q4, with contractions in French and Italian GDP... 5th February 2020 · 11 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Dec.) & Final PMIs (Jan.) December’s euro-zone retail sales data suggest that household consumption growth slowed sharply in Q4. Meanwhile, the upward revision to January’s euro-zone Composite PMI implies that the... 5th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Greek pensions: a step in the wrong direction A decade after the start of its first bailout programme, the Greek government has still not reined in the cost of its pension system. And the government’s recent decision to raise pensions suggests... 3rd February 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Business & Consumer Survey (Jan.), Unemp. (Dec.) Despite increasing in January, the euro-zone Economic Sentiment Indicator suggests that the economy is unlikely to have gained much momentum in Q1. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate, which fell to its... 30th January 2020 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Norges Bank on hold; Franc rises to near 3-year high Political developments in Norway this past week are no game changer for the economic outlook; we suspect that monetary policy there will remain on hold for the foreseeable future. In contrast, we... 24th January 2020 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank on hold for foreseeable future This morning’s decision by the Norges Bank to leave its key policy rate on hold at 1.50% was widely expected. We suspect that the Bank will leave rates on hold until 2022 though, if anything, our... 23rd January 2020 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economic Outlook Policymakers to follow the ECB down We think growth and inflation will be below consensus in Switzerland and the Nordics this year. Switzerland is most exposed to the prolonged manufacturing recession in Germany and inflation there is... 22nd January 2020 · 20 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook ECB to keep pushing on a string We expect economic growth to remain sluggish this year as external demand picks up only slowly and domestic demand softens. Employment growth is slowing, which will cause household incomes and... 21st January 2020 · 30 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack SNB to be forced to cut interest rates again The decision by the SNB to scrap its currency ceiling five years ago coincided with it slashing interest rates to a record low to reduce the attractiveness of holding Swiss francs. Alas, this... 16th January 2020 · 10 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Euro-zone starts the year on a weak note Hopes that the euro-zone economy will gather pace in the coming months are likely to be dashed. The latest business surveys point to growth stabilising but not recovering in the final quarter of last... 9th January 2020 · 11 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Rally in the Swedish krona is unlikely to last What a difference a few months make; from being the worst performing G10 currency by some margin between the start of the year and late October, the Swedish krona has risen by about 3% against the... 16th December 2019 · 10 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Central Bank of Iceland in “wait-and-see” mode After cutting rates by 150bps since April, the Central Bank of Iceland kept its deposit rate at its current record low of 3.00% today. We suspect that in the absence of a sharp and sustained fall in... 11th December 2019 · 2 mins read
