Europe Economics Update Netherlands to continue to outperform Dutch GDP fell much less than the euro-zone average last year and, even though the economy is unlikely to avoid contraction in Q1, we think it will regain its pre-crisis level sooner than any other... 10th March 2021 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway Consumer Prices (Feb.) Core inflation in Norway came in above target again in February, and while we expect it to fall in the coming months, home-grown price pressures should support the rate later in the year as activity... 10th March 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Price pressures building Euro-zone inflation looks set to rise sharply in the coming months as energy inflation shoots up and core inflation edges higher. Indeed, the PMI surveys suggest that manufacturing input prices are... 4th March 2021 · 12 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Jan.) & Unemp. Rate (Jan.) January’s data show that euro-zone retail sales fell very sharply at the start of this year, despite the strength of online sales. As lockdowns have been extended in many economies and daily virus... 4th March 2021 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Feb.) The strong set of manufacturing PMIs for February indicates that industry remains in rude health. That said, as elsewhere, there are signs of supply problems and rising price pressures. 1st March 2021 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Switzerland GDP (Q4 2020) & KOF Barometer (Feb.) The 0.3% q/q expansion in Swiss GDP in Q4 was slightly better than expected and means that output was just 1.6% smaller than in Q4 2019. Tighter virus-related restrictions and a renewed slump in the... 26th February 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Consumer Confidence (Feb.) Euro-zone consumer confidence rose in February but it remained very low. Unless vaccine programmes accelerate to allow restrictions to be lifted soon, a sustained pick up in confidence remains months... 18th February 2021 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden Consumer Prices (Jan.) Swedish inflation rose sharply, as expected, in January and is set rise above the Riksbank’s 2% target in Q2. In any case, policymakers have signalled that they will look through any temporary breach... 18th February 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Portugal’s recovery shifting into reverse After a relatively mild first wave of coronavirus, Portugal is now contending with the worst second wave in Europe. Another economic contraction in Q1 is all but certain and more delays to the vaccine... 16th February 2021 · 7 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Denmark GDP (Q4 2020) The slightly smaller-than-expected 0.6% q/q increase in Danish GDP in Q4 left the economy 3.1% smaller than it was in Q4 2019. Although activity is likely to slow in Q1 – on the back of tighter virus... 15th February 2021 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Super-sized boosts to energy inflation on the way Higher oil prices will provide a boost to energy inflation in most countries over the coming months, including in Switzerland and the Nordics. In Sweden and Norway, the energy component will be... 12th February 2021 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway GDP (Q4 2020) & Swiss CPI (Jan. 2021) This larger-than-expected increase in Norwegian mainland GDP in Q4 confirms that Norway is faring much better than its European peers. Activity is likely to have weakened at the start of 2021, but... 12th February 2021 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway Consumer Prices (Jan.) Core Norwegian inflation edged down in January and will continue to fall back this year as the inflationary boost from previous krone weakness fades. The Norges Bank will be in no rush to raise... 10th February 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Slow vaccinations still the big concern Our forecast that the euro-zone economy rebounds strongly hinges on Covid-19 restrictions being lifted by the middle of the year. Unfortunately, vaccine supply shortages, distribution problems and... 4th February 2021 · 12 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Dec.) December’s data show that euro-zone retail sales rose at the end of last year. But restrictions have been tightened in many economies since then and non-essential shops remain closed in several... 4th February 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final PMIs (Jan.) The final Composite PMIs suggest that economic activity in the euro-zone contracted in January. We suspect that the economy has become more resilient to pandemic-related restrictions than it was a... 3rd February 2021 · 2 mins read
