FX Markets Update We still think the future is brighter for Kiwi than Aussie 11th January 2021 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily UK stock market shrugs off near-term economic pain The particularly strong performance of equities in the UK today may seem at odds with the rapid rise in coronavirus cases there and the likelihood of further restrictions on activity. But provided... 4th January 2021 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Additional savings could provide fuel for the rebound The 7.9% q/q recovery in consumption in Australia in Q3 still left it 6.8% below pre-virus levels. Even excluding Victoria, consumption only recovered to around 4.5% below pre-virus levels. And since... 22nd December 2020 · 11 mins read
EM Markets Chart Pack We expect EM local currency bond yields to remain low Positive vaccine news has not changed our view that monetary policy in many emerging markets (EMs) will generally remain loose for some time yet. That is a key reason why we still expect EM local... 18th December 2020 · 8 mins read
Capital Daily Currency “manipulators” and the outlook for the dollar Regardless of the eventual consequences of the US Treasury’s decision yesterday to label Switzerland and Vietnam currency manipulators, we think that there are good reasons why the US dollar will... 17th December 2020 · 8 mins read
DM Markets Chart Pack We think that the rally in equity markets will continue We think there is scope for global equities to make more headway over the next couple of years, against the backdrop of a recovering global economy and supportive monetary and fiscal policy. 16th December 2020 · 7 mins read
Global Markets Update We think that US corporate spreads will narrow further While US corporate credit spreads are now close to their pre-pandemic levels, we think that they will fall further in general as the global economy recovers with the help of vaccines. 10th December 2020 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily A closer look at the evidence of froth in the US stock market Back in the summer, we argued that while some segments of the US stock market were starting to look a bit frothy, there was no evidence that the S&P 500 overall was unsustainably high. But with the... 7th December 2020 · 6 mins read
Global Markets Update Bond yields unlikely to rise much despite vaccine We think that the limited reaction of developed market government bonds to positive vaccine news is a sign of things to come. While the introduction of effective vaccines should help drive a stronger... 2nd December 2020 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily We think that the euro will make further ground against the dollar The euro has risen to its highest level against the US dollar since the middle of 2018, at the time of writing. And we think that it will gain further ground in the next couple years against a... 30th November 2020 · 6 mins read
EM Markets Chart Pack Reaction to vaccine news may be a sign of things to come Equities and bonds in emerging markets (EMs) rallied sharply on the vaccine news earlier this month, particularly outside of Asia. We think they will continue to fare well as the global economy... 27th November 2020 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily We doubt bond yields will rise much even if equities rally more We think that the relatively muted reaction of developed market government bonds to positive vaccine news is a sign of things to come. While the introduction of effective vaccines should help drive a... 25th November 2020 · 4 mins read
DM Markets Chart Pack Rally in equity markets has further to go in our view We continue to think that stock markets will make further headway against a backdrop of a recovering global economy and continued accommodative monetary policy, as investors increasingly focus on the... 25th November 2020 · 7 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Employment to decline in December The decline in restaurant visits in the past month suggests that over 100,000 jobs in the accommodation and food services sector were at risk even before most of the Greater Toronto Area moved into... 24th November 2020 · 9 mins read
Global Markets Update Strong ¥ may not stop Japanese equities from rising further After underperforming the MSCI USA Index for most of 2020, the MSCI Japan Index has started to outperform it in recent days. Provided COVID-19 is brought under control in most major economies, we... 19th November 2020 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Outlook We forecast stronger equities and a weaker dollar We continue to think that risky assets will gain more ground and that the US dollar will weaken against a backdrop of a recovering global economy and continued accommodative monetary policy. In our... 13th November 2020 · 31 mins read
