Capital Daily ECB’s dovishness suggests peripheral yields will fall further The ECB’s decision today to step-up the pace of its purchases suggests that the central bank will continue to underpin the sovereign bond market for some time yet and supports our view that the yields... 11th March 2021 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update We think that the future is bright for Japanese equities We think that the recent outperformance of the MSCI Japan Index relative to the MSCI USA Index will continue as the world slowly gets back to normal. 9th March 2021 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily We think that the rotation in the stock market will continue While the recent rise in the yields of US 10-year TIPS has probably contributed to the renewed rotation in the US stock market, in our view other factors – like vaccination progress and economies re... 2nd March 2021 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Wage growth near its trough Labour markets in both countries have tightened in recent months. In Australia, the unemployment rate has fallen from a peak of 7.1% to just 6.4% in January. And other measures of spare capacity have... 1st March 2021 · 11 mins read
EM Markets Chart Pack We don’t think we are in for another “taper tantrum” We still expect emerging market (EM) “risky” assets and currencies to make further gains this year, despite growing concerns about another “taper tantrum”. 23rd February 2021 · 8 mins read
DM Markets Chart Pack We don’t think this is the start of a rout in bond markets In our view, central banks’ cautious approach to tightening means that the yields of 10-year government bonds will rise only slowly in the next few years, even as the global economy recovers further. 18th February 2021 · 7 mins read
Global Markets Update A fresh look at equity market performance since vaccines We think that the positive equity market rotation that accompanied November’s vaccine announcements will resume before long if, as we expect, vaccines allow restrictions on activity to be lifted later... 17th February 2021 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Three features of the recent stock market rally The MSCI World Index of developed market (DM) equities has risen by ~6% since COVID-19 vaccination programmes started in early December and hit another record high yesterday. While the magnitude of... 9th February 2021 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update We still think bond yields will stay low In our view, major central banks will generally take a more cautious approach to tightening monetary policy than they did in the past. This underpins our forecast that the yields of 10-year government... 5th February 2021 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily We expect loose monetary policy to keep a lid on bond yields The RBA’s decision earlier today to extend its bond purchases, despite considerable improvement in the economic outlook, is just the latest sign that major central banks are likely to take a much more... 2nd February 2021 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Outlook Despite bubble talk, we expect risky assets to rise more We continue to forecast that risky assets generally will fare well over the next couple of years as the global economy recovers and monetary policy remains accommodative. Despite their rapid rise... 29th January 2021 · 30 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Vaccinations lag the US Canada will receive only enough doses of the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines to provide the equivalent of one dose to 16% of the population by the end of the first quarter. By contrast, even in the... 26th January 2021 · 9 mins read
Global Markets Update We still think the future is brighter for Kiwi than Aussie While we have revised up our end-2021 forecasts for the Australian dollar and the New Zealand dollar against the US dollar to reflect the strength of their recent rallies, we still think that the Kiwi... 25th January 2021 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily A closer look at US equities as earnings season kicks off Even if the US stock market is not in a bubble, it could still be vulnerable if analysts’ expectations for corporate earnings are too rosy. On balance, though, we don’t think this is the case. 19th January 2021 · 6 mins read
EM Valuations Monitor We doubt Chinese equities are in a bubble The valuations of Chinese equities have risen considerably over the past few months. But we don’t think that they are yet in a big bubble that is bound to burst soon. 19th January 2021 · 8 mins read
DM Valuations Monitor Little evidence of widespread overvaluation in risky assets Despite signs of exuberance in a few markets, we don’t think that we are in the late stages of a bubble in “risky” assets generally. Provided vaccines enable the gradual relaxation of coronavirus... 14th January 2021 · 8 mins read
