Industrial Metals Update The best days are behind iron ore After scaling a multi-year high in 2019, we forecast that iron ore prices will fall back over the coming years. This is premised on the continued return of supply from Brazil and Australia following... 13th December 2019 · 4 mins read
Industrial Metals Update The case for copper In our view, the outlook for copper prices over the next twelve months is positive. Supply is unlikely to recover nearly as quickly as many assume following major disruptions this year, and demand... 9th December 2019 · 3 mins read
Commodities Weekly OPEC still has work to do The announcement that OPEC+ will deepen output cuts by 0.5m bpd in the first quarter of 2020 boosted oil prices this week. While the decision means that the market will be a bit tighter next year than... 6th December 2019 · 8 mins read
Metals Chart Pack Awaiting direction Despite somewhat more encouraging economic data releases, industrial metals prices struggled to find direction in November mainly owing to the ongoing uncertainty surrounding US-China trade... 5th December 2019 · 7 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Latest Trump tariffs pose little downside risk to prices President Trump’s decision to impose tariffs on imports of steel and aluminium from Brazil and Argentina is likely to have little impact on prices. And while this could be interpreted as a sign that... 4th December 2019 · 3 mins read
Commodities Chart Pack Commodities not in party mode Commodity prices struggled to find direction in November despite the release of somewhat stronger economic data. Meanwhile, developments on the US-China trade front remained a key driver of sentiment... 3rd December 2019 · 7 mins read
Commodities Update Backdrop not quite as rosy as China’s PMIs indicate China’s official and unofficial PMIs rose in November, suggesting that the weakness in the manufacturing sector has eased. While this could provide some support to industrial commodity prices in the... 2nd December 2019 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly OPEC+ to roll over, but not deepen, output cuts Commodities prices were little changed this week. Prices were initially boosted by President Trump’s comments that the US and China were in the “final throes” of a trade deal. But they pared their... 29th November 2019 · 7 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Nickel’s slump gives scope for upside in 2020 Following the recent correction in the nickel price, we now think there is room for it to rise next year. We expect a large loss of supply and a recovery in demand to yield a deeper market deficit... 28th November 2019 · 4 mins read
Metals Data Response China and India Gold Imports (Oct.) Gold imports by China and India remained at historically low levels in October. Our view is that the gold price rally is now behind us, and that ongoing weakness in consumer demand will be one of the... 25th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly Commodities still on the sidelines The prices of most industrial commodities traded in a narrow range this week in part owing to stronger-than-expected PMI data from the US and elsewhere. However, the bigger picture is that global... 22nd November 2019 · 7 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Lead supply shortfall in 2020 looks increasingly likely In our view, market participants have recently become too downbeat on the prospects for lead. In fact, we think there are several reasons to expect the price of lead to rebound in the year ahead. 22nd November 2019 · 3 mins read
Commodities Weekly It’s still all about trade The prices of industrial commodities tumbled this week amid uncertainty about whether a “Phase One” trade deal between the US and China will be signed and further signs of weakness in China’s... 15th November 2019 · 7 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Consumption data are overstating aluminium demand We think that aluminium consumption figures are being flattered by a resurgence in off-exchange stockpiling. As such, and contrary to consensus expectations of a market deficit in 2019, we think that... 14th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Commodities Weekly Investors still not convinced … Commodity price moves were surprisingly muted this week considering the news that the “Phase One” trade deal between the US and China may involve the lifting of some of the tariffs already in place... 8th November 2019 · 7 mins read
Metals Chart Pack October’s price gains a false dawn A cocktail of an apparent softening of US-China trade tensions coupled with several supply outages pushed the prices of most base metals higher in October. Perhaps somewhat unusually, the price of... 6th November 2019 · 7 mins read
