Commodities Outlook Cautiously optimistic A gradual rebound in global economic growth and, in many cases, constrained supply mean that we are broadly positive on the outlook for most commodity prices in 2020-21. One exception is the price of... 27th January 2020 · 25 mins read
Metals Data Response Global Steel Production (Dec.) China continued to diverge from the rest of the world in December, with steel output rising sharply. In contrast, other major producers continue to feel the pain of weak demand and oversupply. However... 27th January 2020 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly Coronavirus highlights fragility of price recovery Fears that the outbreak of a new coronavirus in China could dent demand hit industrial commodity prices hard this week, erasing almost all year-to-date gains. We don’t pretend to be experts on public... 24th January 2020 · 7 mins read
Metals Data Response Global Aluminium Production (Dec.) Global aluminium production for December rounded off a dismal 2019, but we think the prospects for output in 2020 are a bit brighter. The main positive contributions are likely to come from China, the... 20th January 2020 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly Wait and see … The lukewarm market reaction to the signing of the Phase One trade deal between the US and China lends weight to our view that an agreement had already been priced by commodities markets. For our part... 17th January 2020 · 7 mins read
Commodities Weekly Devil in the detail of US-China trade deal Oil prices yo-yoed last week, as US-Iran warmongering faded almost as quickly as it started. Similarly, the price of gold spiked, but ended the week unchanged. Meanwhile, the market reaction to the... 10th January 2020 · 7 mins read
Metals Chart Pack Settling in for some near-term weakness December was a relatively strong month for both precious and industrial metals, with prices rising almost across the board. A weaker US dollar and safe-haven buying buoyed gold prices, while base... 9th January 2020 · 7 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Base metals to dethrone precious this year We forecast that the prices of base metals will fare better than precious metals in 2020. This view hinges on a modest recovery in the global economy, which should give a lift to metals demand at a... 7th January 2020 · 4 mins read
Precious Metals Update Base metals to dethrone precious this year We forecast that the prices of base metals will fare better than precious metals in 2020. This view hinges on a modest recovery in the global economy, which should give a lift to metals demand at a... 7th January 2020 · 4 mins read
Commodities Chart Pack December’s moves point to better times ahead The prospect of a ‘Phase One’ trade deal between the US and China buoyed commodity prices in December. Although we expect trade tensions to remain elevated, we think that most commodity prices will... 6th January 2020 · 7 mins read
Commodities Weekly US-Iran tensions to take centre stage Oil prices received a shot in the arm following Friday’s assassination of Qassem Soleimani, a top ranking Iranian general. Regardless of geopolitical events, we expect constrained supply growth and a... 3rd January 2020 · 7 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Aluminium price to rise in 2020 despite surplus We forecast that the price of aluminium will rise this year even if, as we expect, the market flips from a deficit to a surplus. This is due to our expectation that investors will focus on a more... 3rd January 2020 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly Commodities end the year on a high Most commodity prices rose this week, in part owing to the release of strong Chinese activity data. Lingering optimism following the announcement of a US-China “Phase One” trade deal at the end of... 20th December 2019 · 7 mins read
Metals Data Response Global Aluminium Production (Nov.) Global aluminium production continued to falter in November, largely due to another sharp fall in Chinese output. But additions to China’s capacity coupled with a resumption of shuttered smelters... 20th December 2019 · 2 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Focus to continue to shift away from US-China trade The muted market reaction to news of a provisional trade deal between the US and China lends weight to our view that the trade war’s grip on metals markets will ease over the coming year. While we are... 17th December 2019 · 3 mins read
Commodities Weekly Commodities dodge a bullet Most industrial commodity prices rose this week, as the US and China announced that they had reached a phase-one trade deal. The agreement cancels the tariffs scheduled to come into effect this Sunday... 13th December 2019 · 7 mins read
