Metals Data Response Global Steel Production (Aug.) An upturn in Chinese output lifted global steel production growth out of the doldrums in August. But with environmental cuts being stepped up, and construction activity set to falter, we doubt this... 26th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Commodities Weekly Geopolitics back in focus There was a rude awakening for the oil market last weekend as a missile and drone attack on Saudi oil facilities, allegedly backed by Iran, removed around 50% of Saudi capacity. As the dust settled... 20th September 2019 · 7 mins read
Metals Data Response Global Aluminium Production (Aug.) Global aluminium production fell again in August, and we think this contraction could deepen in the months ahead. Despite this, we forecast that the price of aluminium will fall a little further this... 20th September 2019 · 2 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Just how much nickel is sitting off-exchange? We estimate that 190,000 tonnes of refined nickel have flowed into unreported stocks since 2017. In other words, nickel stocks are much higher than official numbers indicate. This supports our view... 20th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Chinese outages won’t boost LME aluminium price Smelter outages in China have led to a surge in the ShFE price of aluminium, and there is mounting speculation that the LME price will soon follow suit. We disagree. In contrast, our in-house model... 18th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Commodities Weekly Price gains lack fundamental support The apparent thaw in US-China trade relations gave most industrial commodity prices a lift, but we have seen these sort of ‘goodwill’ gestures before and doubt that the two sides are any closer to... 13th September 2019 · 7 mins read
Commodities Update Strength in China’s commodity imports won’t last long China’s commodity imports ticked up in August, in part due to strong infrastructure spending. But we expect them to weaken in the months ahead as temporary factors fade and construction activity tails... 9th September 2019 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly Much too soon to call a recovery Although the prices of most industrial commodities rose this week, we think that a sustained and broad-based recovery is still some way away. A trio of factors were responsible for this week’s rise... 6th September 2019 · 7 mins read
Metals Chart Pack Demand concerns to continue driving prices We expect worries about the escalating US-China trade war and prospects for the global economy to continue to drive metals prices in the coming months. Precious metals are benefitting from the... 6th September 2019 · 7 mins read
Commodities Update Coffee prices still due a pick-me-up this year We continue to expect a modest rebound in coffee prices by end-2019 as currently low prices force many high-cost producers to exit the market altogether. 5th September 2019 · 2 mins read
Commodities Chart Pack US-China trade war to continue to weigh on prices The escalation in US-China trade tensions led to investors becoming more risk averse, which boosted the prices of gold and silver but depressed the prices of agricultural and industrial commodities... 4th September 2019 · 7 mins read
Commodities Weekly Any boost to prices is unlikely to last long While the US-China trade war has continued to escalate, commodity prices have clawed back a little of their lost ground since the trough at the end of last week. This was aided in part by President... 30th August 2019 · 7 mins read
Metals Watch Incoming US tariffs put metals in the crosshairs As it stands, the US is set to levy a 15% tariff on roughly $300bn of ‘List 4’ imports from China, of which around half will be introduced on 1st September and 15th December respectively. We had... 29th August 2019 · 6 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report The huge weekly drawdown in US crude stocks clearly soothed some of the near-term fears surrounding softer demand, as evidenced by today’s gain in prices. But our forecast for a slowdown in the US... 28th August 2019 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly Powell & China wake commodities from their slumber After a quiet start to the week, Friday’s announcement of additional Chinese tariffs on US imports and Jerome Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole stirred prices (and President Trump) into action. Most... 23rd August 2019 · 7 mins read
Metals Data Response Global Aluminium Production (Jul.) Global aluminium production remained in the doldrums in July. We had previously expected smelter ramp-ups and lower input costs to spur a recovery in China’s output in the second half of 2019. But... 20th August 2019 · 2 mins read
