Commodities Chart Pack No relief for prices yet Oil prices plummeted in March under the weight of a collapse in demand and pledges from OPEC+ members to significantly raise output. Most other commodity prices also fell last month as the COVID-19... 1st April 2020 · 7 mins read
Metals Watch Copper’s “price premium” to grow In this Metals Watch, we introduce our measure of the “fundamental” copper price. A key takeaway is that, while we expect the traded price of copper to recover some lost ground by year-end, there is... 30th March 2020 · 7 mins read
Commodities Weekly Supply cuts unlikely to lift prices yet Commodity prices are still highly volatile, but they have remained in the doldrums this week despite the rally in other risky assets, notably equities. We have argued for some time that until the... 27th March 2020 · 7 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Why supply cuts don’t matter (yet) Several producers outside China have reduced operations in the past week, most notably in Latin America. But much like policy support, lower supply will do little to boost prices so long as measures... 25th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Metals Data Response Global Steel Production (Feb.) Global steel output was reasonably resilient in February. But that follows substantial downward revisions to the January figures. And while policy support – particularly in China – may boost steel... 23rd March 2020 · 2 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Even after this week’s sell-off, the worst is yet to pass Over the last month, industrial metals prices had been holding up on hopes that China’s economy was edging closer to a post-virus recovery. But that all changed this week. With what were once downside... 20th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Commodities Weekly Commodity prices still on thin ice Industrial commodity prices slumped this week amid virus-related economic disruption in the US and Europe and rising concerns about a deeper economic downturn in Asia, particularly China. Meanwhile... 20th March 2020 · 7 mins read
Metals Data Response Global Aluminium Production (Feb.) Despite alarm bells ringing for global aluminium demand, output growth continued to gather pace in February. This will only have added to the piles of unwanted inventory and is another reason to... 20th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update When will commodities find their feet? As commodity prices continue to flash red, this Update summarises how we think things will play out from here. In the near term, we suspect that further price falls are in store, regardless of policy... 18th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Commodities Weekly Still some way from the bottom Commodity prices tumbled this week, echoing moves in other financial markets. Oil was among the worst performers as Saudi Arabia and Russia announced that they will ramp up output from April, after... 13th March 2020 · 7 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Stock hangover to dampen any recovery in prices Downward revisions to our demand forecasts mean that we now expect all base metal markets to be oversupplied in H1 2020. Lower output should, at best, prevent these surpluses from growing too large... 13th March 2020 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update Oil to continue to underperform other commodities Even before OPEC+ abruptly abandoned output cuts, oil had fared far worse than most other commodities. Some of this can be explained by oil’s greater use in the forms of economic activity most... 10th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Worst is yet to come for China’s commodity imports China’s commodity exports collapsed in the first two months of 2020. In contrast, commodity imports held up relatively well, but this probably reflects the greater logistical challenge faced by... 9th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly Oil prices plunge as Russia refuses to play ball Oil prices closed below $50 per barrel this week for the first time in two years as Russia refused to rollover or deepen OPEC+ output cuts at the latest meeting with OPEC in Vienna. As a result, we... 6th March 2020 · 7 mins read
Metals Chart Pack Don’t rule out further price falls February was another poor month for industrial metals. However, prices fell by less than in January and policy loosening seems to have stabilised prices more recently. That said, the outbreak of COVID... 6th March 2020 · 7 mins read
Industrial Metals Update China stimulus to push iron ore and steel higher The prospect of stronger demand stemming from stimulus in China, alongside recent supply disruptions, means that we now expect the deficit in the iron ore market to deepen this year, rather than... 4th March 2020 · 4 mins read
