Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Taking stock of the improvement in trade positions One striking observation from the latest EM goods trade data is that exports have continued to rebound faster than imports, causing trade positions to improve further. While some of these gains may... 11th December 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Next year’s vaccine boost to vary across countries The race to secure and approve COVID-19 vaccines is in full swing and, while roll-out will generally be slower in EMs than in DMs, immunisation of vulnerable populations over the next year or so is a... 10th December 2020 · 11 mins read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Vaccines don’t eliminate financial risks Positive vaccine developments have diminished, but not dispelled, financial risks in emerging markets. Brazil and South Africa are still facing slow-burning fiscal crises, while India’s banking sector... 3rd December 2020 · 8 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update PMIs suggest industrial recovery to continue November’s headline manufacturing PMIs were generally encouraging and suggest that EM industrial sectors are faring well, even in Central & Eastern Europe where overall GDP will slump in Q4. We expect... 1st December 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Q4 shaping up to be a mixed bag The latest activity and mobility data are consistent with economies in Latin America, India and South Africa registering another quarter of positive growth in Q4, and those in Central & Eastern Europe... 27th November 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Increase in EM portfolio inflows likely to be sustained The US election outcome and positive vaccine news has triggered a jump in EM net portfolio inflows to their highest level since 2014. These inflows are likely to remain robust over the coming quarters... 24th November 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Monetary policy to remain loose despite vaccines This month’s positive vaccine news has dramatically improved the near term global economic outlook, but it doesn’t fundamentally alter our dovish view on EM monetary policy. Many EMs have only small... 20th November 2020 · 11 mins read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor How an effective vaccine might impact EM exports An effective vaccine rolled over the course of 2021-22 would probably result in weaker demand for COVID-19 related products and some consumer goods, removing a tailwind to exporters in parts of Asia... 12th November 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update More to the October PMIs than meets the eye October’s headline manufacturing PMIs released so far for EMs were generally encouraging across the board, but they do not fully reflect the very latest surge in global COVID-19 cases and restrictions... 2nd November 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor CEE entering a renewed downturn The rapid spread of COVID-19 in Central & Eastern Europe (CEE) will cause a renewed slump in the region in Q4. That contrasts with India and parts of Latin America and Africa, where falling new cases... 30th October 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Second wave to hit recovery & keep rate cuts on table Recoveries in much of the emerging world were slowing even before the renewed surge in COVID-19 cases across many parts of the globe. The economies of Central & Eastern Europe will be hit hard in Q4... 29th October 2020 · 11 mins read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor The uneven EM export recovery At the aggregate level, EM exports continued to recover in August and September. But this masks a wide divergence in performance at a country level, which we expect to persist in the coming months. 27th October 2020 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The US election and its impact on emerging markets Whatever the outcome of the US election, we expect that the trends of US-China decoupling and deglobalisation will continue. The election result could be pivotal for some EMs: a Joe Biden victory... 16th October 2020 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Could the crisis lead to higher EM inflation? Large output gaps look set to keep inflation low in most emerging markets over the next few years. But further out, we think that worrying public debt trajectories in some places (Brazil and South... 13th October 2020 · 15 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Three points on the latest bout of EM capital outflows Daily data suggest that foreign investors have been net sellers of emerging market bonds and equities in recent weeks, but there are reasons not to be very concerned. 8th October 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Solid September PMIs, but recovery to lose steam September’s relatively strong batch of emerging market manufacturing PMIs suggests that recoveries in industrial production continued in September. But with the global rebound losing steam, growth in... 1st October 2020 · 3 mins read
