Latin America Economics Weekly Old tricks in Argentina, Mexico’s minimum wage hike Argentina’s government is resorting to old habits, having turned to deficit monetisation and drawing down the central bank’s FX reserves in recent weeks. While these unorthodox measures will help to... 3rd January 2020 · 6 mins read
Frontier Markets Wrap Rally in Argentine & Lebanese bonds to go into reverse Argentine and Lebanese sovereign dollar bond spreads have narrowed over the past month, but we think that they will widen again before long. The narrowing has been most dramatic in Argentina, where... 19th December 2019 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack 2020 to be better than 2019 Economic growth across the emerging world has slumped this year but, with the important exception of China, recoveries should take hold in 2020. Recent interest rate cuts will keep financial... 17th December 2019 · 9 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: What to watch for as Fernández takes office Alberto Fernández’s government, which takes office today, will soon begin to implement its economic agenda and outline its proposals to resolve the debt crisis. This Update outlines four key things to... 10th December 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM debt: revisiting the risks Concerns about foreign currency debts in emerging markets have flared up again in recent weeks, but we think that the worst of these fears are probably overdone. FX debt burdens in most EMs have... 3rd December 2019 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM growth to be stronger in 2020 EM GDP growth picked up in Q3 and, despite a likely slowdown in China, we expect that aggregate EM growth will be a touch stronger in 2020 than it has been this year. 29th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Frontier Markets Wrap Distressed bonds likely to head in opposite directions Ecuador this month joined the handful of frontier economies where sovereign dollar bonds are trading at levels commonly associated with default. But with the IMF likely to stand by the government, we... 28th November 2019 · 8 mins read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Asian electronics and the coming EM export rebound The year-on-year rate of EM export growth should turn positive in the coming months, but this will mainly reflect favourable base effects from the Asian electronics cycle rather than stronger... 19th November 2019 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Protests persist, but fallout will vary Ongoing protests in Chile, Hong Kong and Lebanon will weigh on their economies and financial markets, but to different degrees. While the tightening of financial conditions and strikes in Chile will... 15th November 2019 · 9 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Why a new wave of structural reforms is unlikely A new wave of structural reforms, if implemented, could plausibly lift average EM GDP growth by over 1%-pt in the 2020s. But we doubt that these reforms will be forthcoming. Even if they are, EM GDP... 14th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazilian reforms, Chile protests, Fernández shuns IMF Fiscal reforms proposed by Brazil’s president this week are a step in the right direction, but the good news already seems to be priced. Indeed, markets took their cue from a failed oil auction... 8th November 2019 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update A fiscal health check We expect most major EMs to loosen fiscal policy further next year. Weak public finances mean that a few major EMs, notably Brazil and South Africa, will need to tighten policy. But aside from... 7th November 2019 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Pockets of risk remain Economic and financial vulnerabilities are generally low across much of the emerging world, but there are a handful of weak links. Argentina’s sovereign debt vulnerabilities remain high and, whichever... 29th October 2019 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Market stress around elections: lessons from history Governments that have been elected during episodes of severe market stress and have managed to turn things around have done so by securing some form of bailout package and announcing a credible reform... 23rd October 2019 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM core inflation weakest on record The continued decline in core inflation across many emerging markets supports our view that most central banks’ easing cycles have further to run. Our measure of EM core inflation fell to 2.8% y/y... 18th October 2019 · 9 mins read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM exports facing a bumpy recovery The EM export recovery paused in August and September, although we think exports should still strengthen over the coming quarters. This isn’t because of developments in the trade war – the recent... 17th October 2019 · 7 mins read
