Frontier Markets Wrap SDR allocation no panacea for distressed frontiers A fresh allocation of IMF Special Drawing Rights (SDRs), if implemented, would provide a welcome boost to the depleted foreign exchange reserves of some distressed frontier economies. But an... 3rd March 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Manufacturing PMIs still point to further EM recovery February’s manufacturing PMIs released across the emerging world were the proverbial mixed bag but, taken together, generally point towards solid EM industrial production growth in the next month or... 1st March 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Microchip shortages: first thoughts on the trade impact A global shortage of semiconductors is disrupting auto production, and – among EMs – it could hit exports from Central Europe and Mexico in particular. But some of the lost revenue should be made up... 26th February 2021 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Improving outlook, but recovery will still be weak The outlook for emerging markets has improved in recent weeks, but we still expect a relatively slow and bumpy economic recovery over the next 12-18 months. 24th February 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Reasons for cautious optimism While the mood in EM financial markets has soured a little of late, from an economic standpoint, the past month has brought several positive developments. First, Q4 GDP data released so far have... 23rd February 2021 · 11 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Three key points on the risks of another taper tantrum We do not expect a re-run of the 2013 “taper tantrum”, in which EM assets went into a tailspin and some EM central banks were forced to hike policy rates. But even if there were a similar period of... 16th February 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Recovery in EM portfolio flows may already be fading Net portfolio inflows into many emerging markets reached multi-year highs towards the end of 2020, which allowed a handful of central banks to lean against the wind and accumulate FX reserves. That... 10th February 2021 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Ecuador votes, Brazil risks easing, Banxico to cut Sovereign debt risks in Ecuador will remain high regardless of Sunday’s election result and another debt restructuring is likely in the medium term. Even so, there could still be a window of... 5th February 2021 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update FX intervention: echoes of “currency wars” The announcement of FX purchase programmes by several EM central banks has evoked comparisons with the “currency wars” that followed the Global Financial Crisis. One lesson from this period is that FX... 4th February 2021 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update PMIs still consistent with solid manufacturing growth Manufacturing PMIs from emerging markets generally rose last month, underscoring that industrial sectors should continue to weather renewed outbreaks and restrictions in the coming months. But China’s... 1st February 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Big gains in EM exports are behind us While we expect a swift recovery in developed economies over the course of this year, we doubt that this will come alongside a boom in EM goods exports. Instead, as global consumption patterns start... 29th January 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Reasons to expect the EM recovery to soldier on High COVID-19 cases across parts of the emerging world have grabbed headlines over the past few months. But while these outbreaks will inevitably create bumpiness in the affected countries’ economic... 28th January 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack More weakness still to come for many EMs The roll-out of COVID-19 vaccines is getting underway across EMs, but in many cases progress has been slow-going. In the meantime, many countries are suffering from worsening outbreaks. New cases are... 22nd January 2021 · 11 mins read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Digging into the divergences in the latest activity data The latest activity data continue to show a divergence across countries, but also sectors. Consumers have generally driven recoveries in parts of Latin America, while manufacturing has been the main... 21st December 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Strong inflows, but talk of “borrowing binge” overdone Net portfolio inflows into EMs have been close to multi-year highs this month, and that appears to have come alongside an uptick in sovereign Eurobond issuance in recent weeks. Even so, debt issuance... 17th December 2020 · 3 mins read
Frontier Markets Wrap On the “vaccine boost” to frontier economies Frontier economies will receive only a relatively small direct economic boost from the roll-out of vaccines next year. But the indirect benefits via higher commodity prices, capital inflows and... 15th December 2020 · 3 mins read
