Latin America Data Response Chile GDP & Current Account (Q2) The pick-up in Chilean GDP growth from 1.6% y/y in Q1 to 1.9% y/y in Q2, is likely to mark the beginning of a sustained economic recovery. While GDP growth over this year as a whole is likely to be... 19th August 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina crisis wrap, limited contagion, Banxico The Argentine peso has stabilised over the past few trading days but the collapse earlier this week has made a sovereign debt default highly likely. The good news is that contagion to the rest of the... 16th August 2019 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Downgrading our forecasts for Argentina The rout in Argentine markets is likely to push the economy back into recession. We now expect GDP to contract by 3% over this year as a whole (our previous forecast was -2.0%) and inflation to breach... 15th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: the ways that default could play out With Argentine markets continuing to come under pressure, a sovereign debt default is increasingly likely. We think this is most likely to come in response to a request from the IMF, probably before... 14th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Argentine debt risks: revisiting the crunch points The rout in Argentine markets yesterday, and increasing likelihood of a lurch to the left in October’s presidential election, has rekindled sovereign default fears. One crunch point could be 15th... 13th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Markets forcing Argentine sovereign default The rout in Argentine markets today will push up the public debt ratio to over 100% of GDP, and makes a sovereign default even more likely. It’s possible that the IMF requests a debt restructuring... 12th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Four key points on Argentina’s primary election The comprehensive victory for Alberto Fernandez in Argentina’s primary election paves the way for the return to left-wing populism that many investors fear. With a renewed focus on sovereign default... 12th August 2019 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly A primer on Argentina’s primaries, Banxico to cut Argentine markets are likely to take their cue from the outcome of Sunday’s primary elections when they open next week, but we would caution that the vote doesn’t always foreshadow the presidential... 9th August 2019 · 6 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Jun.) The stronger-than-expected increase in Mexican industrial production in June, of 1.1% m/m, should provide a strong carryover for Q3. But with the economy still very weak, we remain comfortable with... 9th August 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Jul.) The further fall in Mexican inflation in July, to 3.8% y/y, keeps an interest rate cut at next week’s policy meeting on the table. It will be a close call, but on balance we think the central bank... 8th August 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Mexico stimulus, Colombia austerity, dovish surprises The Mexican government’s fiscal stimulus, unveiled this week, looks large enough to support an economic recovery in the second half of the year, but raises medium term fiscal risks. In contrast... 2nd August 2019 · 8 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico GDP (Q2, Prov.) Preliminary GDP data suggesting that Mexico escaped a technical recession by the skin of its teeth in Q2 don’t change the bigger picture that the economy remains very weak. This supports our non... 31st July 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Interest rate cuts imminent The case for interest rate cuts across Latin America has strengthened in the past month, partly because of the dovish shift by the Fed, but also because of soft domestic inflation and growth... 25th July 2019 · 12 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Jul.) The further fall in Mexican inflation in the first half of this month, to 3.8% y/y, makes an interest rate cut at the central bank’s next policy meeting on 15th August increasingly likely. 24th July 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Pemex yields to rise further, Chile to cut rates The Mexican government’s underwhelming business plan for troubled state-owned oil company, Pemex, reinforces our view that it is not willing to implement the reforms necessary to stabilise oil... 19th July 2019 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Positive newsflow on EM trade unlikely to last The US-China trade war truce, coming alongside Mercosur countries and Vietnam securing trade deals with the EU, has eased some of the worst fears about protectionism. But it’s far from certain that... 18th July 2019 · 8 mins read
