Emerging Markets Economics Update Are EMs reaching the limits of monetary policy? If faced with a steep downturn, most EM central banks would be able to cut interest rates substantially in order to cushion their economies. Interest rates in a handful of countries are close to the... 4th October 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM consumers helping to offset industrial weakness The recent stabilisation in EM GDP growth has come alongside further evidence that solid consumer spending is helping to offset weakness in industry. We expect this trend to continue in the coming... 27th September 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Middle East tensions and the impact on EM rates Rising tensions in the Middle East present a significant upside risk to our oil price and inflation forecasts, and could force a handful of EM central banks to abandon easing cycles or even hike... 26th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Aug. 2019) EM capital outflows persisted last month and, with the US-China trade war unlikely to abate, we think that they will continue in the coming quarters. However, the scale of outflows should remain... 25th September 2019 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina in pre-vote limbo, Brazil easing continues The latest data added to the evidence that Argentina’s recession deepened in Q3. Financial markets have stabilised more recently, but we doubt that the country will make any real progress in resolving... 20th September 2019 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack More good news than bad For all the talk of a global slowdown, the incoming data from the emerging world have been encouraging. Having bottomed out in Q2, GDP growth held steady at around 3.5% y/y at the start of Q3. EM... 20th September 2019 · 10 mins read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM exports stabilise, but outlook poor EM exports stabilised in July and August but, with the latest round of US-China tariffs yet to feed through and global growth subdued, we expect EM export growth to remain weak in the coming quarters. 18th September 2019 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Capital controls: the good, the bad and the ugly Capital controls can be an effective tool if policymakers are able to plug loopholes and address the underlying economic vulnerabilities that initially resulted in pressures on the financial account... 12th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Currency falls unlikely to derail EM easing cycles We expect EM currencies to come under further pressure over the coming quarters, but the falls are unlikely to be on the same scale as the ones which ended previous easing cycles. As a result, most EM... 5th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: Capital controls would do long-term damage The capital controls introduced by Argentine President Mauricio Macri over the weekend may, in the short term, help to stem capital flight and slow the pace of FX reserve depletion. But their... 2nd September 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Argentina turns to default The collapse in Argentine assets this month and the subsequent news that the government will seek to reprofile its debts puts the country on the brink of its fifth default in thirty years. The economy... 30th August 2019 · 12 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Scepticism surrounding Argentina’s reprofiling plan The Argentine government’s debt reprofiling plan has been greeted with some scepticism, and we think markets will remain under pressure unless investors see evidence of joined-up thinking between... 30th August 2019 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Questions & answers on Argentina’s debt reprofiling The Argentine finance ministry’s decision to extend the maturities of some of its short-term local-law debt, and enter talks with external bondholders, is tantamount to default. The government and... 29th August 2019 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update A closer look at Argentina’s FX reserves The Argentine central bank’s large intervention in the FX market in recent days hasn’t been enough to stop the peso from weakening further against the dollar, and we think that the gross FX reserve... 28th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update A primer on Argentine government debt Investors appear to be coming round to our view that an Argentine sovereign debt default is now more likely than not. This Update provides clients with a primer on the composition of federal... 23rd August 2019 · 4 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Aug.) The larger-than-expected fall in Mexican inflation in the first half of this month, to 3.3% y/y, strengthens the case for Banxico to follow up this month’s 25bp interest rate cut with further... 22nd August 2019 · 2 mins read
