Capital Daily What a hawkish BoJ might mean for markets Today’s decision by the BoJ to tighten policy by more than discounted in the markets was accompanied by a stronger yen, higher bond yields and a rise in the stock market. However, we don’t think these... 31st July 2024 · 5 mins read
Asia Rapid Response Taiwan GDP (Q2, first estimate) Taiwan’s economy almost stalled in the second quarter, with growth coming in well below our expectations. While we think GDP growth will pick up in the second half of the year, we are cutting our full... 31st July 2024 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan will hike rates yet again in October The Bank of Japan outlined a plan for reducing its bond purchases and hiked its policy rate by 20bp today. We think it will follow up with another 20bp hike at its October meeting. 31st July 2024 · 3 mins read
FX Markets Update Inflation a bigger deal than carry trade for AUD & NZD We think the yen’s rally will continue, but suspect that won’t stop the Australian and New Zealand dollars – alleged victims of the carry trade’s unwind – from making some ground over the next year or... 31st July 2024 · 4 mins read
RBA Watch RBA to stay put as narrow path remains viable The Reserve Bank of Australia is likely to leave policy settings unchanged when it meets next week. Although there has been little progress on disinflation in recent months, the Board is likely to pin... 31st July 2024 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Consumer Prices & Retail Sales (Q2) 31st July 2024 · 2 mins read
China Rapid Response China PMIs (Jul. 2024) The PMIs for July suggest that China’s economy weakened further last month, as domestic weakness continues to weigh on the economy. But the government now seems intent on ramping up policy support... 31st July 2024 · 3 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Industrial Production & Retail Sales (June 24) 31st July 2024 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Latest thoughts on r* and where rates end this cycle In detailed analysis last year, we concluded that equilibrium nominal interest rates would settle at between 3% and 4% in advanced economies in the next ten years. We maintain that opinion and in fact... 30th July 2024 · 4 mins read
China Activity Monitor CAP: Growth faltering as domestic weakness persists Our China Activity Proxy suggests that the economy has lost some steam recently with weak domestic demand weighing on activity. Alongside recent rate cuts, policymakers have signalled that fiscal... 30th July 2024 · 4 mins read
China Rapid Response China Politburo Meeting (Jul. 2024) The readout of the Politburo’s latest triannual meeting on economic affairs has just been published by state media. It was dovish in tone and adds to recent evidence that the leadership believes more... 30th July 2024 · 2 mins read
Asia Rapid Response Further easing on the cards The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) lowered its policy rate by 100bps today, and further easing is likely later in the year. Today’s cut marks the second consecutive meeting where the central bank has... 29th July 2024 · 2 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Labour Market (June) The conundrum of low unemployment despite falling job openings continued in June and we expect the labour market to keep treading water over coming months. 29th July 2024 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Carry trade trouble need not pop the equity bubble Despite the possibility that the unwinding of the yen “carry trade” has amplified the global stock market sell-off lately, we think equity prices could rebound even if the yen continued to strengthen. 26th July 2024 · 5 mins read
