Asia Rapid Response

Philippines GDP (Q2, 2024)

The economy slowed sharply in Q2 and we expect below trend growth to persist over the rest of the year as tight monetary policy, slower growth in remittances and soft export demand weigh on activity...

8th August 2024 · 2 mins read

Commodities Update

China, not a US slowdown, the key for industrial metals

Following another leg down in industrial metals prices, this time due to growing worries about a US recession and the broader financial market carnage, we still think that prices will fall further...

7th August 2024 · 3 mins read

Capital Daily

Is the yen’s rally – and all that went with it – over?

We’re not so sure the yen’s gains are done, even though it sagged earlier today.

7th August 2024 · 5 mins read

Japan Economics Update

The financial stability risks from recent market moves

Even though it’s difficult to identify what could have broken as a result of the recent rapid market moves, a stronger yen is a bigger threat to the health of Japan’s financial institutions than...

7th August 2024 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

RBNZ to kickstart its easing cycle next week

We are in the minority of forecasters who expect the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to hand down a 25bp rate cut at its meeting next week. Moreover, with excess capacity in the economy rising rapidly, we...

7th August 2024 · 5 mins read

China Rapid Response

China Merchandise Trade (Jul. 2024)

Growth in export values slowed last month, but this was mainly due to lower export prices. Export volumes remained near record highs. We expect outbound shipments to stay strong for a while, not least...

7th August 2024 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

New Zealand Labour Market (Q2 2024)

Although employment growth in Q2 was stronger than most had anticipated, it didn’t keep the unemployment rate from climbing higher. What’s more, a look under the hood suggests the labour market is in...

6th August 2024 · 2 mins read

Capital Daily

What to make of turnaround Tuesday in Tokyo

Sentiment has improved in Asian markets today, especially in Japan where equities have rallied very strongly. We think there are a few observations worth noting of relevance for global markets.

6th August 2024 · 4 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

With RBA remaining hawkish, rate cuts will have to wait

Although the RBA left rates on hold today, it poured cold water on market expectations that it will loosen policy later this year. With the economy still running above its speed limit, we continue to...

6th August 2024 · 3 mins read

Japan Economics Update

FX intervention to weaken yen unlikely

Japan’s government has intervened in the FX markets to weaken the yen far more often than to strengthen it. But FX interventions have become very rare over the past two decades and our sense is that...

6th August 2024 · 4 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting (Aug. 2024)

6th August 2024 · 2 mins read

Japan Rapid Response

Japan Labour Cash Earnings (June 24)

The enormous rise in labour cash earnings in June was mostly driven by a jump in summer bonus that won’t be sustained, but the figures clearly point to another BoJ rate hike later this year if the...

6th August 2024 · 2 mins read

Asia Economics Update

Bangladesh: the economic fallout from the unrest

The outbreak of political violence and the sudden resignation of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina has rocked Bangladesh today. But provided that peace and stability is restored relatively soon, the...

5th August 2024 · 3 mins read

Global Markets Update

This feels less like 2000 than 1998, and even then …

We doubt the AI-fuelled rally in global equities has burst, despite a rout in the stock market in the US after some disappointing data there last week and a plunge in Asian indices today. It feels...

5th August 2024 · 4 mins read

Capital Daily

Two questions (and answers) on today’s Asian market drama

The yen surged today, and some Asian equity indices plunged, as investors worried about a “hard landing” in the US economy. We think there are two key questions to consider.

5th August 2024 · 5 mins read