Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Australia Labour Market (Jun. 2024)

Although job growth remained healthy last month, it didn’t prevent the unemployment rate from rising anew. And we suspect the rise in joblessness has much further to run.

18th July 2024 · 3 mins read

Commodities Update

Gold jewellery to lose its lustre under high prices

Gold jewellery demand has been highly sensitive to price changes in the past and so will come under pressure from the current backdrop of record high gold prices. Income growth in key markets will...

17th July 2024 · 3 mins read

FX Markets Update

Yen intervention: fourth time’s the charm?

Japan’s intervention in support of the yen is not enough in itself to generate a sustained rebound in the yen. But with the FOMC (finally) nearing its first rate cut while the BoJ continues to tighten...

17th July 2024 · 4 mins read

Japan Rapid Response

Japan External Trade (June 2024)

While the widening of the trade deficit in June points to a sizeable drag from net exports on Q2 GDP growth, activity should still have rebounded last quarter.

17th July 2024 · 1 min read

Asia Rapid Response

Indonesia Policy Rate (July 2024)

Bank Indonesia today left its policy rate unchanged at 6.25%, but the central bank’s dovish commentary supports our view that rates will be cut in Q4. Today’s decision was correctly predicted by all...

17th July 2024 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

New Zealand Consumer Prices (Q2 2024)

Today’s CPI release confirms that inflation is all but certain to return to the RBNZ’s 1-3% target by Q3. In the context of an extremely weak economy and a rapidly loosening labour market, there is a...

16th July 2024 · 2 mins read

India Economics Update

New forecasts for inflation and policy rates

The upside surprise to headline consumer price inflation last month has all but ended hopes of a rate cut at the RBI’s August policy meeting. But we think that the conditions will be in place for...

16th July 2024 · 3 mins read

Asia Economics Update

Demographics are not destiny in the Philippines

Newly-published data show that the Philippines has entered a demographic sweet spot that could provide a big boost to economic growth. But this will only happen if enough new jobs can be created for...

16th July 2024 · 4 mins read

Japan Economics Focus

Higher interest rates won’t trigger housing meltdown

While higher interest rates will make owner-occupied housing less affordable, the Bank of Japan will only tighten policy gradually so detached house prices will probably hold up well. By contrast...

15th July 2024 · 15 mins read

China Rapid Response

China GDP (Q2) & Activity (Jun. 2024)

Weaker-than-expected official GDP figures show that China’s economy lost momentum in Q2. But we doubt this marks the beginning of a renewed downturn just yet – a step up in fiscal stimulus and...

15th July 2024 · 2 mins read

India Rapid Response

India Consumer Prices (Jun. 2024)

The surprise jump in headline consumer price inflation last month will be enough to convince any MPC members who may have been leaning toward rate cuts at the August policy meeting that conditions are...

12th July 2024 · 2 mins read

China Economics Weekly

PBOC narrows rate corridor, overcapacity worsens

The PBOC’s expanded open market operations effectively narrow the interest rate corridor for short-term interbank rates. This won’t have any immediate consequences for monetary conditions. But it does...

12th July 2024 · 6 mins read

Asia Economics Weekly

Korea: assessing the impact of the strike at Samsung

Even if the strike by workers at Samsung Electronics is brought to an end soon, it has served to highlight once again the inflexibility of Korea’s labour market and the poor state of industrial...

12th July 2024 · 7 mins read

China Rapid Response

Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Jun.)

Both bank loan and broad credit growth hit a record low in June. While further fiscal loosening may provide some support to credit growth in the near-term, the continued weakness of the property...

12th July 2024 · 2 mins read

India Economics Weekly

Budget and geopolitics in focus

The full Budget for FY24/25 - which will be unveiled on 23rd July - will provide an important indication of how much the BJP is willing to concede to its coalition partners. Meanwhile, developments...

12th July 2024 · 5 mins read