Asia Economics Update

Five questions (and answers) on Korea’s political crisis

President Yoon Suk Yoel has rescinded his declaration of martial law, but Korea’s political crisis is far from over. The opposition are now trying to impeach the president, while financial markets...

4th December 2024 · 3 mins read

RBA Watch

RBA will wait until May before cutting rates

The RBA will leave interest rates unchanged at its upcoming meeting on 10 th December. While the weakness in economic activity points to rate cuts before long, we think the Bank will need to see...

4th December 2024 · 7 mins read

Capital Daily

Market implications of the drama in Korea

This early edition of the Capital Daily outlines our initial thoughts on the market implications of the political drama in Korea.

4th December 2024 · 4 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Australia GDP (Q3 2024)

GDP growth remained sluggish in the third quarter, adding to the case for the RBA to start easing policy before long.

4th December 2024 · 2 mins read

Event

Asia Drop-In: Korea political crisis – Macro and market implications

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President Yoon Suk Yeol’s declaration of martial law – and parliament’s vote to reverse it – has plunged Asia’s fourth largest economy into crisis and triggered turmoil across

Asia Economics Update

Korea’s president declares martial law

The declaration of martial law by Korea’s president is an extraordinary step that seems likely to trigger either the suspension of Constitutional democracy in Korea or the president’s own rapid...

3rd December 2024 · 4 mins read

Japan Economic Outlook

Bank of Japan will hike rates to 1.25% by end-2026

We now expect inflation excluding fresh food and energy to remain above the Bank of Japan’s target for most of next year as the yen remains weak for longer and the upcoming spring wage negotiations...

3rd December 2024 · 18 mins read

Global Markets Update

New forecasts for Japan’s financial markets

We now think the 10-year JGB yield will rise further, the yen will make more ground against the US dollar, and Japan’s equities will struggle to make much headway (in yen terms).

2nd December 2024 · 3 mins read

Asia Economics Update

Asia Manufacturing PMIs, Korea Trade (November)

The November PMIs for Asia remained weak and are consistent with our expectation for manufacturing activity in the region to remain subdued in the near term. The data also showed a modest pick-up in...

2nd December 2024 · 2 mins read

China Rapid Response

China PMIs (Nov. 2024)

While the Caixin services PMI fell a touch, the composite PMI rose which is consistent with our expectation for an acceleration in q/q GDP growth this quarter. Increased fiscal spending and the front...

2nd December 2024 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

Stretched affordability bodes poorly for housing cycle

Although Australian house prices edged up a notch in November, we remain sceptical about prospects for a second wind in the housing cycle. Given that the RBA is unlikely to provide interest-rate...

2nd December 2024 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Australia Retail Sales (Oct. 24)

2nd December 2024 · 2 mins read

Asia Economics Weekly

Korea’s interest rate cut, falling inflation in Singapore

The Bank of Korea surprised most analysts (although not us) when it cut interest rates at its scheduled meeting yesterday. The weakness of today’s activity data makes us more confident in our view...

29th November 2024 · 5 mins read

China Chart Pack

China Chart Pack (Nov. 24)

The economy has already regained some momentum on the back of increased policy support. But this tailwind is unlikely to be sustained beyond a couple of quarters. And US tariffs will soon hurt China’s...

29th November 2024 · 0 mins read

India Economics Weekly

Maharashtra vote, RBI, a big call on Indian equities

For the past three years India has been the darling of global investors, but its stock market has come under pressure in recent weeks amid signs of a bubble forming and we've made a big call that...

29th November 2024 · 3 mins read