China Rapid Response China Activity & Spending (Oct. 2024) China’s economy improved further at the start of Q4, thanks to stronger-than-expected consumer spending. We think faster fiscal spending will support a continued cyclical pickup in activity overing... 15th November 2024 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Markets starting to anticipate December rate hike The financial markets have finally come around to our long-held view that the Bank of Japan will hike rates once more before year-end. With domestic economic data mixed, that probably reflects the... 15th November 2024 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA will only start cutting rates in Q2 We learnt this week that the Australian labour market remained on solid ground in October, having loosened very little since the start of the year. The data will only reinforce the RBA's view that... 15th November 2024 · 4 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan GDP (Q3 24 Preliminary) The economy lost momentum in the third quarter and we think that GDP growth will remain around trend over the coming quarters 15th November 2024 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Labour Market (Oct. 2024) With the labour market still on sturdy ground, there is a growing risk to our forecast that the RBA will cut rates as soon as February next year. 14th November 2024 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update Unsecured lending: boom to bust? We argued 18 months ago that the sharp rise in unsecured lending left India’s financial sector at risk of rising defaults, and anecdotal evidence suggests that this risk is materialising. The chances... 13th November 2024 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update How much power will the DPP have? Our base case is that the LDP/Komeito coalition will be able to push through major pieces of legislation, including a supplementary budget by year-end, with only minor concessions to the Democratic... 13th November 2024 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Wage Price Index (Q3 2024) Wage growth eased markedly in Q3, as workers in the awards system received much smaller pay hikes than last year. Although wage growth should ease further in the coming quarters, the ongoing weakness... 13th November 2024 · 3 mins read
India Rapid Response India Consumer Prices (Oct. 2024) Another bigger-than-expected jump in headline consumer price inflation last month will be enough to convince a majority of MPC members that conditions are not yet right to begin easing policy. We now... 12th November 2024 · 2 mins read
China Rapid Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Oct.) Both bank lending and broad credit growth hit fresh lows in October in a sign that monetary easing hasn’t done enough to drive a substantial turnaround in private credit demand. And after last week’s... 12th November 2024 · 2 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Japan Chart Pack (Nov. 2024) Wage growth is starting to outpace inflation and with real incomes rising, the rebound in consumer spending has further to run. With the Bank of Japan sounding more upbeat at their October meeting and... 12th November 2024 · 1 min read
China Rapid Response China Consumer & Producer Prices (Oct. 2024) Headline CPI and PPI inflation both fell further in October. But core inflation edged up and factory gate prices fell more slowly in m/m terms, a sign that recent stimulus efforts are having some... 11th November 2024 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update What happened to the fiscal stimulus? Today’s fiscal announcement was far smaller and less detailed than many had hoped for. The explanation, we think, is that China’s leadership sees less need for stimulus than most commentators (we’re... 8th November 2024 · 5 mins read
Commodities Weekly Assessing the impacts of Trump and China stimulus Despite his pledges to “drill, baby, drill” and dramatically raise tariffs on China, we suspect that the net impact of Trump’s policies on energy and industrial metals prices will probably be small... 8th November 2024 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly How would China retaliate? China’s exporters are still thriving and may do even better in the near term as customers prepare for big increases in tariffs next year. China’s leadership has had plenty of time, and the experience... 8th November 2024 · 7 mins read
