China Economics Update RRR cut marks shift in focus, even if not major easing The People’s Bank (PBOC) has just announced a 50 basis point cut to the required reserve ratio (RRR) for most banks. This is less of a lurch towards monetary easing than it might seem at first glance... 9th July 2021 · 3 mins read
China Data Response China Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Jun.) Credit growth levelled off in June having previously decelerated to the pre-pandemic pace. We suspect this is a pause rather than an end to the slowdown – today’s RRR cut notwithstanding. Either way... 9th July 2021 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly Inflation concerns will prove misplaced A further jump in government bond yields in India this week points to growing expectations of monetary tightening, perhaps fuelled by concerns over rising inflation. But while CPI data next week are... 9th July 2021 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Singapore bouncing back, rate cut for the Philippines The government in Singapore is starting to ease restrictions, and the success of the country’s vaccination programme will hopefully allow a rapid return to normality. This should set the stage for a... 9th July 2021 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA’s central scenario may signal rate hikes soon The RBA began shifting the stance of monetary policy this week by watering down its commitment to keep rates on hold for the foreseeable future. The Bank’s central scenario is still consistent with... 9th July 2021 · 7 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch New climate change facility not a game changer At its July meeting we expect the Bank of Japan to outline that it will offer interest-free loans to banks under its new fund-provisioning measures aimed at addressing climate change. Beyond that... 9th July 2021 · 8 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Pandemic unlikely to herald period of higher inflation With producer prices rising at their fastest pace in years and goods shortages showing no signs of easing, the risks to inflation seem to be tilted to the upside. However, we aren’t convinced that a... 9th July 2021 · 4 mins read
China Data Response China Consumer & Producer Prices (Jun.) After reaching a 12-year high in May, producer price inflation dropped back in June as the rally in global commodity prices faltered. Consumer price inflation declined too, on the back of a sharp drop... 9th July 2021 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia: rates to remain low for a long time The fact that Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) left its policy rate on hold at 1.75% today despite the poor economic outlook means any further loosening is unlikely. But with the recovery set to be slow and... 8th July 2021 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update A closer look at India’s vaccine supply projections The government’s latest vaccine supply projections suggest that India could fully vaccinate all adults by year end. But that hinges on optimistic assumptions about production and distribution. Unless... 7th July 2021 · 3 mins read
RBNZ Watch RBNZ tightening creeping closer We doubt the RBNZ will adjust any policy settings when it meets next Wednesday 14 th July. However, as the New Zealand economy continues to recover faster than the RBNZ expects we think the Bank will... 7th July 2021 · 7 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook Faster vaccine campaign allows rapid rebound Japan’s lagging vaccine rollout has finally reached cruising speed, which should allow a rapid recovery in activity over the second half of the year. The labour market may soon be as tight as it was... 7th July 2021 · 22 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA to hike rates in early-2023 By tapering its bond purchases and watering down its commitment to keep its policy rate unchanged until 2024, the RBA is paving the way for interest rate hikes in 2023. 6th July 2021 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Wages & Household Spending (May 2021) While the further acceleration in wage growth in May was again largely down to favourable base effects, we think wage growth will stay elevated as the labour market tightens and vaccines fuel a... 6th July 2021 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Services & Composite PMI (Jun.) The drop in India’s PMI readings for June should soon reverse as the second virus wave has subsided and restrictions are being eased. But a rapid reopening increases the risks of fresh outbreaks... 5th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia: Retail Sales (May 2021) Retail sales are sure to decline in June as the impact of the recent lockdowns weighs on household consumption. Even so, the rise in retail sales in May means the risks to our forecast the consumption... 5th July 2021 · 2 mins read
