Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand Consumer Prices (Q2) We had already expected the RBNZ to hike rates in August and the surge in inflation in Q2 only bolsters our confidence in that forecast. 16th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Shifting towards rate hikes Falling virus cases, strong economic recoveries and/or inflation worries prompted several more EM central banks – those of Czechia, Chile, Hungary and Mexico – to tighten monetary policy in the past... 15th July 2021 · 11 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Central banks to tighten as bust turns to boom Sydney’s lockdown will keep a lid on Australia’s recovery for now, but booming housing markets should support consumer spending and dwellings investment in both countries. We don’t expect labour... 15th July 2021 · 24 mins read
China Data Response China GDP (Q2), Activity & Spending (Jun.) China’s GDP growth dropped back in y/y terms last quarter as the base for comparison became less flattering. In q/q terms, output rose at a slightly faster pace than in Q1, when a flare-up in virus... 15th July 2021 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Korea still on course for an August rate hike The Bank of Korea (BoK) left its main policy rate on hold at 0.50% today and signalled that a rate hike is still very much on the table this year. While the worsening virus situation has made things... 15th July 2021 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (Jun.) The labour market continued to tighten in June and while the lockdown in New South Wales may result in some bumps over the next couple of months, we expect wage growth to accelerate soon. 15th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor Net capital outflows from emerging markets have picked up over the past month following the Fed’s more hawkish turn at the FOMC meeting in early June. Outflows may intensify over the coming months... 14th July 2021 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Jun.) Wholesale price inflation dropped for the first time in five months in June and is set to fall sharply over the coming months as commodity prices drop back. With headline CPI inflation also likely to... 14th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand- End of asset purchases signals rates will rise soon The RBNZ today sent a hawkish signal by announcing the end of its bond purchases. While we currently expect the Bank to start hiking rates in May next year, the risk is that it will happen earlier. 14th July 2021 · 3 mins read
Asia Data Response Singapore GDP (Q2, Advanced) The economy stumbled in Q2 after the government reimposed restrictions in response to a spike in virus cases, but with new infections down and the government rolling back containment measures, the... 14th July 2021 · 3 mins read
Commodities China’s industrial metals imports to weaken further China’s imports of most industrial commodities continued to fall in June. We expect import volumes of near all commodities, but especially the industrial metals, to ease further in the months ahead as... 13th July 2021 · 2 mins read
China Data Response China Trade (Jun.) Headline trade growth was stronger than expected last month, partly thanks to an increased supply of semiconductors. But exports remained below their recent peak and we still think shipments will... 13th July 2021 · 4 mins read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Jun.) & Industrial Production (May) India’s consumer price inflation remained above the 6% upper limit of the RBI’s target range for a second consecutive month in June. But if we are right in thinking that inflation has peaked, the... 12th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Higher vaccine supply will render lockdowns obsolete With the virus outbreak in New South Wales going from bad to worse we’re pencilling in a marked slowdown in Q3 GDP growth. However, given that deliveries of the Pfizer vaccine have been brought... 12th July 2021 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update GDP to rebound in Q3 despite restrictions in Tokyo While new infections in Tokyo have picked up, the fourth state of emergency in the capital is partly a political move designed to placate fears that the Tokyo Olympics will trigger yet another virus... 12th July 2021 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly A milestone in financial decoupling Decoupling has entered a new phase over the past year. Where China previously was trying to temper US efforts to decouple, in key areas it now appears to want the same. This week a turning point was... 9th July 2021 · 8 mins read
