Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Hawkish RBA to hike rates in early-2023 The Reserve Bank of Australia delivered a hawkish surprise by not delaying the tapering of its bond purchases. And by predicting that it will hit its full employment mandate and make further progress... 3rd August 2021 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update China PMIs point to weaker metals demand China’s July survey data suggest that manufacturing and construction activity have continued to cool, which supports our view that a slowdown in China will weigh heavily on industrial metals prices. 2nd August 2021 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Update What would a hard lockdown mean for Japan? With the Delta variant lifting new infections to a record-high, calls for a “hard” lockdown are growing. If that happened, services activity would fall further but we doubt that the government would... 2nd August 2021 · 3 mins read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Jul.) The sharp rebound in India’s manufacturing PMI in July adds to evidence that the economy has been staging a strong recovery ever since the second virus wave receded. But with vaccine coverage still... 2nd August 2021 · 2 mins read
China Data Response China PMIs (Jul.) The latest surveys suggest that the pace of growth slowed more than expected last month. Supply bottlenecks remain a constraint. But the PMIs suggest demand is cooling too, taking the heat out of... 2nd August 2021 · 3 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea Trade (July) July data add to evidence that Korean exports are plateauing, after reaching very high levels. While we expect some softening ahead as final demand weakens a touch, a sharp pullback in exports is... 2nd August 2021 · 3 mins read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (July) The July PMIs for Emerging Asia point to sharp contractions in manufacturing in those places worst affected by the virus. With outbreaks likely to remain a key headwind for months to come, the rapid... 2nd August 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia CoreLogic House Prices (Jul.) House prices are continuing to surge and forward indicators suggest the upswing has a little further to run. Even so we think house price growth will slow in 2022. 2nd August 2021 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly Delta putting zero-COVID approach under strain China’s ability to quash COVID flare-ups is being tested again: the Delta variant outbreak that was identified in Nanjing last week has already spread further within China than any since the first... 30th July 2021 · 6 mins read
India Data Response Core Infrastructure Industries (Jun.) India’s core infrastructure industries index rebounded in seasonally-adjusted m/m terms in June, suggesting that an industrial recovery is well underway. 30th July 2021 · 2 mins read
China Data Response Hong Kong GDP (Q2 Preliminary) Hong Kong’s economy contracted last quarter as exports moderated after an exceptional Q1. The path of output is likely to remain subdued until Hong Kong’s borders reopen. 30th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Taiwan GDP (Q2, provisional) Taiwan’s economy only contracted slightly last quarter despite a major COVID outbreak, as strong exports cushioned the blow. Large backlogs of orders should keep exports elevated which, alongside a... 30th July 2021 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Another disappointing quarter Strong activity data for June confirm that the economy entered Q3 on a relatively strong footing. But while vaccinations are limiting the number of severe cases and deaths, daily coronavirus cases... 30th July 2021 · 5 mins read
China Chart Pack Investors refocus on long-term concerns Questions about the strength of China’s post-lockdown rebound have become louder since the People’s Bank cut the required reserve ratio three weeks ago. But the trigger for this week’s sharp equity... 30th July 2021 · 13 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Activity to rebound in fourth quarter With the Sydney lockdown set to extend into the fourth quarter, we’ve lowered our Q3 GDP forecast further. However, we still think that the economy will bounce back in Q4 as vaccine hesitancy is... 30th July 2021 · 8 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Virus now hitting industry in Malaysia and Vietnam Industry in Malaysia and Vietnam was already feeling a pinch from restrictions and worker shortages brought about by a jump in COVID-19 cases, but the situation is deteriorating fast. Data early next... 30th July 2021 · 9 mins read
