Asia Data Response Singapore GDP (Q2, Advanced) The economy stumbled in Q2 after the government reimposed restrictions in response to a spike in virus cases, but with new infections down and the government rolling back containment measures, the... 14th July 2021 · 3 mins read
Commodities China’s industrial metals imports to weaken further China’s imports of most industrial commodities continued to fall in June. We expect import volumes of near all commodities, but especially the industrial metals, to ease further in the months ahead as... 13th July 2021 · 2 mins read
China Data Response China Trade (Jun.) Headline trade growth was stronger than expected last month, partly thanks to an increased supply of semiconductors. But exports remained below their recent peak and we still think shipments will... 13th July 2021 · 4 mins read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Jun.) & Industrial Production (May) India’s consumer price inflation remained above the 6% upper limit of the RBI’s target range for a second consecutive month in June. But if we are right in thinking that inflation has peaked, the... 12th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Higher vaccine supply will render lockdowns obsolete With the virus outbreak in New South Wales going from bad to worse we’re pencilling in a marked slowdown in Q3 GDP growth. However, given that deliveries of the Pfizer vaccine have been brought... 12th July 2021 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update GDP to rebound in Q3 despite restrictions in Tokyo While new infections in Tokyo have picked up, the fourth state of emergency in the capital is partly a political move designed to placate fears that the Tokyo Olympics will trigger yet another virus... 12th July 2021 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly A milestone in financial decoupling Decoupling has entered a new phase over the past year. Where China previously was trying to temper US efforts to decouple, in key areas it now appears to want the same. This week a turning point was... 9th July 2021 · 8 mins read
China Economics Update RRR cut marks shift in focus, even if not major easing The People’s Bank (PBOC) has just announced a 50 basis point cut to the required reserve ratio (RRR) for most banks. This is less of a lurch towards monetary easing than it might seem at first glance... 9th July 2021 · 3 mins read
China Data Response China Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Jun.) Credit growth levelled off in June having previously decelerated to the pre-pandemic pace. We suspect this is a pause rather than an end to the slowdown – today’s RRR cut notwithstanding. Either way... 9th July 2021 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly Inflation concerns will prove misplaced A further jump in government bond yields in India this week points to growing expectations of monetary tightening, perhaps fuelled by concerns over rising inflation. But while CPI data next week are... 9th July 2021 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Singapore bouncing back, rate cut for the Philippines The government in Singapore is starting to ease restrictions, and the success of the country’s vaccination programme will hopefully allow a rapid return to normality. This should set the stage for a... 9th July 2021 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA’s central scenario may signal rate hikes soon The RBA began shifting the stance of monetary policy this week by watering down its commitment to keep rates on hold for the foreseeable future. The Bank’s central scenario is still consistent with... 9th July 2021 · 7 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch New climate change facility not a game changer At its July meeting we expect the Bank of Japan to outline that it will offer interest-free loans to banks under its new fund-provisioning measures aimed at addressing climate change. Beyond that... 9th July 2021 · 8 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Pandemic unlikely to herald period of higher inflation With producer prices rising at their fastest pace in years and goods shortages showing no signs of easing, the risks to inflation seem to be tilted to the upside. However, we aren’t convinced that a... 9th July 2021 · 4 mins read
China Data Response China Consumer & Producer Prices (Jun.) After reaching a 12-year high in May, producer price inflation dropped back in June as the rally in global commodity prices faltered. Consumer price inflation declined too, on the back of a sharp drop... 9th July 2021 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia: rates to remain low for a long time The fact that Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) left its policy rate on hold at 1.75% today despite the poor economic outlook means any further loosening is unlikely. But with the recovery set to be slow and... 8th July 2021 · 3 mins read
