Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia International Trade (May 2021) While export values hit a record high in May, this was largely driven by soaring export prices and export volumes probably dropped back. However, we think that the drag from net trade on GDP growth... 1st July 2021 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea Trade (June) After a strong end to the month, Korean export values reached a fresh all-time high in June. But with some signs external demand is levelling off and semiconductor shortages are biting, we suspect... 1st July 2021 · 3 mins read
China Data Response China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Jun.) The Caixin manufacturing index published today dropped back last month and adds to signs from the official PMI released yesterday that momentum in industry is waning. The surveys point to a levelling... 1st July 2021 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (June) The June PMIs dropped back as virus outbreaks and supply chains issues created mounting headwinds for industry. With neither issue likely to be resolved soon, the rapid growth in industry over the... 1st July 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia CoreLogic House Prices (Jun.) House prices are continuing to surge and forward indicators suggest the upswing has a little further to run. But we suspect the boom will peter out by the end of the year and prices will decline a... 1st July 2021 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Bank of Japan Tankan (Q2 2021) The further rebound in the Q2 Tankan supports our view that the economy’s disappointing start to the year won’t prevent vaccines driving a strong rebound in the second half of the year. And firms’... 1st July 2021 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Core Infrastructure Industries (May) India’s core infrastructure industries index dropped sharply in m/m terms in May, suggesting that the second virus wave has taken a large toll on industry even though it has been subject to fewer... 30th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Asia Chart Pack Virus disruption to continue The virus situation in Emerging Asia has improved compared with a month ago. Although cases are rising sharply in Indonesia, daily numbers have come down in Taiwan, Singapore, India and Malaysia, and... 30th June 2021 · 14 mins read
Precious Metals Update We still think gold will lose its shine After rallying from April onwards, the price of gold has dropped back in recent weeks. We expect the price of gold to fall further over the next couple of years as long-dated US real yields climb. 30th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Vaccine campaigns running into supply constraints With the more contagious delta variant spreading in Australia, half of the population is now in lockdown. This highlights the Achilles heel of both countries’ virus management: their slow vaccine... 30th June 2021 · 11 mins read
China Chart Pack No, China isn’t exporting inflation Some believe that China is adding to global inflationary pressure. The opposite is closer to the truth: the large increase in China’s trade surplus over the past year signals that supply from China... 30th June 2021 · 13 mins read
China Data Response China Official PMIs (Jun.) The latest surveys suggest that growth softened this month. A slower improvement in services activity was mostly to blame. But supply shortages also continued to hold back output in the manufacturing... 30th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Industrial Production (May 2021) The plunge in industrial output in May probably reflects chip shortages, but firms’ production forecasts point to a marked rebound over the coming months. 30th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Focus Transition to carbon neutral 2050 wouldn’t harm growth Achieving net zero emissions in Japan in three decades is a difficult but achievable task. And while the most carbon-intensive sectors may face significant headwinds, overall we agree with PM Suga... 29th June 2021 · 30 mins read
Asia Data Response Vietnam GDP (Q2) Looking past the jump in y/y growth due to a weak base for comparison, GDP data suggest that Vietnam is facing a heavy economic toll from its efforts to control the virus. With sporadic outbreaks... 29th June 2021 · 2 mins read
RBA Watch Flexible QE paves way for tapering in November The Reserve Bank of Australia will probably shift to a flexible form of QE at the upcoming meeting while keeping the weekly pace of purchases unchanged. However, we still expect the Bank to start... 29th June 2021 · 8 mins read
