China Activity Monitor Downhill from here? Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that growth accelerated in q/q terms last quarter but that output edged down in June on the back of softer industrial and construction activity. We think China... 22nd July 2021 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Indonesia: further rate cuts unlikely despite virus surge Bank Indonesia (BI) left interest rates unchanged today at 3.5%, and despite the worsening near-term outlook caused by a surge in COVID-19 cases, the central bank made clear further cuts are unlikely... 22nd July 2021 · 3 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Vaccines should limit Delta damage While infections are now rising sharply nationwide – particularly in Tokyo where the Delta variant has the strongest hold – most of the vulnerable population are now fully vaccinated so we doubt... 22nd July 2021 · 10 mins read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM goods exports may have passed the peak After surging over the past year, the latest data provide signs that EM goods exports have now passed their peak. However, they are still likely to stay at elevated levels for some time yet. 21st July 2021 · 2 mins read
India Chart Pack Inflation has now peaked Amid the ongoing debate over inflation in a post-pandemic world, one thing that does appear clear is that near-term price pressures in India have peaked. Consumer price inflation held steady in June... 21st July 2021 · 9 mins read
China Economics Focus The implications for China and the world of eCNY In this Focus we detail what is known about China’s central bank digital currency and analyse its implications for China and the world. The Focus is fully updated to incorporate the latest publicly... 21st July 2021 · 28 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea Trade (1st – 20th July) July data add to evidence that Korean exports are starting to plateau, after reaching very high levels. We expect some softening ahead as supply chain shortages bite and final demand weakens a touch. 21st July 2021 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan External Trade (Jun. 2021) The rebound in exports showed further signs of slowing in June despite another high y/y growth rate caused by base effects. We think external demand will only provide a small tailwind to growth over... 21st July 2021 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Rates to remain low as virus disruption worsens Surging infections across South East Asia and the slow progress of vaccine rollouts mean that COVID-19 will continue to cause widespread economic disruption across large parts of the region until at... 20th July 2021 · 34 mins read
China Economics Weekly Consumers are playing their part China’s post-lockdown recovery is a lot less patchy than generally thought. Today’s detailed GDP figures suggest that, apart from in pockets like tourism and restaurants, the retail sector is... 16th July 2021 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly South East Asia becomes virus epicentre The virus situation across South East Asia has gone from bad to worse over the past couple of weeks, with Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia and Vietnam all reporting a record high number of daily cases... 16th July 2021 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Update Bank shifting focus away from emergency response The Bank of Japan today unveiled the details of its green lending facility, underlining that its focus is now moving away from addressing the pandemic towards longer-term structural issues. 16th July 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBNZ to tighten policy as inflation surges The RBNZ announced an end to its asset purchases at this week’s meeting. And given the Bank’s hawkish tone, along with the strong inflation data in Q2, we now think the Bank will begin lifting... 16th July 2021 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Delta variant taking hold in Tokyo before Olympics A delta variant-driven fifth wave has begun and cases are beginning to surge in Tokyo ahead of the Olympics opening ceremony next Friday. However, the variant is still overwhelmingly concentrated in... 16th July 2021 · 6 mins read
India Economics Weekly Bad bank starts to take shape The contours of India’s long-awaited “bad bank” have emerged over the past couple of weeks. The bad bank will help to restructure the loans of heavily-indebted firms and facilitate a clean-up of the... 16th July 2021 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Wider trade deficit won’t threaten external position The widening in India’s goods trade deficit in June came on the back of a rebound in imports amid the lifting of containment measures and the recent rally in global oil prices. But while the economic... 16th July 2021 · 2 mins read
