Asia Chart Pack Virus disruption to continue The virus situation in Emerging Asia has improved compared with a month ago. Although cases are rising sharply in Indonesia, daily numbers have come down in Taiwan, Singapore, India and Malaysia, and... 30th June 2021 · 14 mins read
Precious Metals Update We still think gold will lose its shine After rallying from April onwards, the price of gold has dropped back in recent weeks. We expect the price of gold to fall further over the next couple of years as long-dated US real yields climb. 30th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Vaccine campaigns running into supply constraints With the more contagious delta variant spreading in Australia, half of the population is now in lockdown. This highlights the Achilles heel of both countries’ virus management: their slow vaccine... 30th June 2021 · 11 mins read
China Chart Pack No, China isn’t exporting inflation Some believe that China is adding to global inflationary pressure. The opposite is closer to the truth: the large increase in China’s trade surplus over the past year signals that supply from China... 30th June 2021 · 13 mins read
China Data Response China Official PMIs (Jun.) The latest surveys suggest that growth softened this month. A slower improvement in services activity was mostly to blame. But supply shortages also continued to hold back output in the manufacturing... 30th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Industrial Production (May 2021) The plunge in industrial output in May probably reflects chip shortages, but firms’ production forecasts point to a marked rebound over the coming months. 30th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Focus Transition to carbon neutral 2050 wouldn’t harm growth Achieving net zero emissions in Japan in three decades is a difficult but achievable task. And while the most carbon-intensive sectors may face significant headwinds, overall we agree with PM Suga... 29th June 2021 · 30 mins read
Asia Data Response Vietnam GDP (Q2) Looking past the jump in y/y growth due to a weak base for comparison, GDP data suggest that Vietnam is facing a heavy economic toll from its efforts to control the virus. With sporadic outbreaks... 29th June 2021 · 2 mins read
RBA Watch Flexible QE paves way for tapering in November The Reserve Bank of Australia will probably shift to a flexible form of QE at the upcoming meeting while keeping the weekly pace of purchases unchanged. However, we still expect the Bank to start... 29th June 2021 · 8 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Labour Market & Retail Sales (May 2021) While the further rise in the unemployment rate last month suggests on-off restrictions are taking their toll on the labour market, employment should bounce back strongly soon. Meanwhile, consumer... 29th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Which EM central banks might hike next? The next EM central banks likely to raise interest rates are those whose economic recoveries are relatively advanced and can focus on inflation and/or financial risks. Chile and Korea fit into this... 28th June 2021 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly Port congestion easing, border reopening timeline Disruption at China’s busiest container terminal has added to the strains on global trade in recent weeks. But the situation may now be turning a corner, with signs that port congestion is starting to... 25th June 2021 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Vaccine rollout at risk of stalling Australia’s vaccine campaign has accelerated in recent months, but we estimate that the pace of vaccinations would have to double to inoculate the adult population by year-end. Unfortunately... 25th June 2021 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Silver lining to still half-full fiscal war chest The fact that only around half of Japan’s coronavirus fiscal stimulus funds have actually been spent so far supports our view that government spending hasn’t propped up the economy as much as commonly... 25th June 2021 · 8 mins read
India Economics Weekly Can the pick-up in vaccinations be sustained? India’s vaccine rollout appears to have shifted into a higher gear, with daily vaccinations more than doubling over the past couple of weeks. If this upturn is sustained, it would significantly reduce... 25th June 2021 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM exports may be peaking EM goods exports have surged in Q2. There are some early indications that EM exports will now come off their record highs, but they are still likely to stay at elevated levels throughout the rest of... 24th June 2021 · 2 mins read
