Asia Economics Weekly Thailand’s reopening, exports soften Thailand’s tourism sector will remain heavily depressed despite this week’s reopening of Phuket to foreign tourists. Meanwhile, the latest data provide more evidence that export demand has started to... 2nd July 2021 · 6 mins read
India Economics Weekly Taking stock of the latest fiscal package The new fiscal package announced by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman this week will only have a limited impact on both the central budget deficit and demand. It appears that the government feels it... 2nd July 2021 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly Changing views on China, export demand peaking While China’s Communist Party was celebrating its achievements at its official centenary this week, a global survey revealed a sharp decline in popular enthusiasm for economic engagement with China in... 2nd July 2021 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Labour shortages to persist Job vacancies have continued to surge in Australia highlighting worsening staff shortages in almost every industry. While subdued labour mobility was an initial driver, we estimate that labour... 2nd July 2021 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Manufacturing bottlenecks may be easing The economic recovery stalled last quarter as the services sector was held back by virus restrictions and manufacturers suffered from chip shortages. However, with daily jabs now above the government... 2nd July 2021 · 5 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Detailed China trade data highlight supply risks The breakdown of China’s trade data for May shows that the recovery in imports of scrap and tin ore has hit a few stumbling blocks. Were these issues to persist, they could help to put a floor under... 1st July 2021 · 2 mins read
Long Run Update Employment already declining at pace Revisions to the historic data following the recent census show that China’s population barely grew last year and that employment is already contracting faster than previously understood, having... 1st July 2021 · 6 mins read
India Economic Outlook Rebound underway, but relapse risks grow India’s ferocious second virus wave is subsiding as quickly as it emerged, enabling the recovery to get back on track. However, the rapid scaling back of containment measures that is underway... 1st July 2021 · 19 mins read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Jun.) The drop in India’s manufacturing PMI in June suggests that the recent plunge in new virus cases has yet to translate into a pick-up in manufacturing activity. The recovery should get back on track as... 1st July 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia International Trade (May 2021) While export values hit a record high in May, this was largely driven by soaring export prices and export volumes probably dropped back. However, we think that the drag from net trade on GDP growth... 1st July 2021 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea Trade (June) After a strong end to the month, Korean export values reached a fresh all-time high in June. But with some signs external demand is levelling off and semiconductor shortages are biting, we suspect... 1st July 2021 · 3 mins read
China Data Response China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Jun.) The Caixin manufacturing index published today dropped back last month and adds to signs from the official PMI released yesterday that momentum in industry is waning. The surveys point to a levelling... 1st July 2021 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (June) The June PMIs dropped back as virus outbreaks and supply chains issues created mounting headwinds for industry. With neither issue likely to be resolved soon, the rapid growth in industry over the... 1st July 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia CoreLogic House Prices (Jun.) House prices are continuing to surge and forward indicators suggest the upswing has a little further to run. But we suspect the boom will peter out by the end of the year and prices will decline a... 1st July 2021 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Bank of Japan Tankan (Q2 2021) The further rebound in the Q2 Tankan supports our view that the economy’s disappointing start to the year won’t prevent vaccines driving a strong rebound in the second half of the year. And firms’... 1st July 2021 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Core Infrastructure Industries (May) India’s core infrastructure industries index dropped sharply in m/m terms in May, suggesting that the second virus wave has taken a large toll on industry even though it has been subject to fewer... 30th June 2021 · 2 mins read
