US Economics Update Debt ceiling crisis can still be avoided We still expect Congress to avoid a partial government shutdown at the start of next month and to raise the debt ceiling before a full-blown crisis develops in late October. But the negotiations over... 27th September 2021 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Hawkish Fed & China risks point to a stronger dollar In a choppy week dominated by some surprising central bank announcements and the ongoing uncertainty around China’s property sector, the US dollar continued to make some headway, especially against... 24th September 2021 · 8 mins read
Capital Daily We doubt the sell-off in Gilts is over We expect the 10-year Gilt yield to continue to rise over the next few years, but at a much slower pace than recently. 24th September 2021 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Why we changed our mind on the BoE There were two key reasons behind our decision to forecast that the Bank of England will first raise interest rates in 2022 rather than in 2023. First, there is more evidence that the rise in... 24th September 2021 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB rate hikes a distant prospect, Merkel era at an end Even as other central banks hinted this week at a shift towards tighter monetary policy, we doubt that the ECB will follow suit. Meanwhile, the business surveys suggested that while supply-chain... 24th September 2021 · 7 mins read
China Economics Weekly Local governments prepare to step in Evergrande creditors face a bumpy few weeks with a string of bond coupon payments due. Even if the company can scrape together the cash – not at all certain, given that it just missed one payment... 24th September 2021 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly APRA to impose lending restrictions by mid-2022 While house prices have surged, household debt remains contained and lending standards remain sound overall. However, housing credit growth is set to accelerate and there are already signs that some... 24th September 2021 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Qatar gas, Morocco FX purchases, Tunisian turmoil The continued rise in global gas prices will provide a substantial boost to Qatar's export revenues and provide scope for policymakers to loosen the purse strings to support the economic recovery... 23rd September 2021 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily The divergence between the FOMC and financial markets Judging by the reaction in bond markets to yesterday’s Fed announcement, investors are sceptical the central bank will have to hike rates by as much as it is signalling it will. But if, as we expect... 23rd September 2021 · 7 mins read
UK Economics MPC getting closer to tightening policy While rates were left at +0.10% in an 9-0 vote and the Bank of England’s target stock of purchased assets at £895bn, today’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) policy statement suggests that the Bank is... 23rd September 2021 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Investors underestimating pace of Norges Bank hikes This morning’s policy decision double-header played out as planned, with the Swiss National Bank maintaining the status quo and the Norges Bank finally pulling the trigger on its tightening cycle. But... 23rd September 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Rising household debt will limit scope for rate hikes High and rising household debt in Australia and New Zealand will limit central banks’ scope to hike interest rates. The upshot is that we expect the RBNZ to hike rates by a modest 125bp in the... 23rd September 2021 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily A few thoughts on the FOMC meeting and Treasuries We doubt that the Fed will spring a surprise today with its communications on tapering or by revising the timing of lift-off in its interest rate projections. But there is considerable uncertainty... 22nd September 2021 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Thinking through how we could be wrong on Evergrande If, contrary to our opinion and the consensus, a collapse of Evergrande ends up having a significant impact on the rest of the world, it will be because it first causes either major financial... 22nd September 2021 · 4 mins read
China Economics Update Most developers are not on the brink of default With a couple of exceptions, most major developers are in a much stronger financial position than Evergrande and should be able to weather a temporary spike in their borrowing costs amid contagion... 22nd September 2021 · 6 mins read
India Chart Pack Global index inclusion would marginally boost bonds Speculation is building that India will be included in major global bond indices over the next year or so. If that happens, it would highlight the local bond market’s growing maturity and be cast as a... 22nd September 2021 · 9 mins read
