Emerging Europe Economics Russia’s lending boom: time to ring the alarm bells? The strength of mortgage and unsecured consumer lending in Russia has concerned the central bank and raises the threat of a build-up of financial vulnerabilities, but for now we think these risks are... 9th August 2021 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Chile GDP, central bank hawks, Brazil’s meteor This week’s strong activity data from Chile reaffirms our long-held optimism over its economic recovery, and will probably cause the central bank to adopt a more hawkish stance. Other central banks in... 6th August 2021 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Lagging behind Vaccination campaigns across Sub-Saharan Africa will continue to struggle, leaving the region vulnerable to renewed virus outbreaks. This, combined with tight fiscal policy, a slow return of tourists... 5th August 2021 · 22 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update SDR allocation a positive but won’t solve debt woes The $650bn allocation of IMF Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) that was finally signed off by the IMF yesterday should provide welcome relief to some frontier markets such as Ghana and Kenya that still... 3rd August 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics CBRT dodging inflation duty, Poland’s tax proposals Turkey’s central bank raised its inflation forecasts this week and Governor Kavcioglu’s comments suggest that policymakers are unlikely to step up to the plate in the fight against inflation... 30th July 2021 · 9 mins read
Bonds & Equities We don’t expect the rally in bond markets to continue While long-dated government bond yields have plummeted in recent months, we suspect that high inflation and the prospect of tighter monetary policy will see them turn a corner before long. We forecast... 30th July 2021 · 29 mins read
China Chart Pack Investors refocus on long-term concerns Questions about the strength of China’s post-lockdown rebound have become louder since the People’s Bank cut the required reserve ratio three weeks ago. But the trigger for this week’s sharp equity... 30th July 2021 · 13 mins read
India Economics Weekly Bankruptcy code upgrade, RBI meeting The amendments to the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (IBC) that were approved in the Lok Sabha (lower house of parliament) this week could provide much-needed support to India’s banking sector. But... 30th July 2021 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Divisions emerge, but early end to BoE’s asset purchases unlikely While the Bank of England will upgrade its near-term forecasts for inflation in its Monetary Policy Report (MPR) published on 5 th August, it will probably still judge that the rise is transitory. And... 29th July 2021 · 9 mins read
UK Economics Money & Credit (Jun.) The money and credit data showed that consumers were willing to take on more debt in June. However, with consumers accumulating excess savings at a faster pace, there were signs that the resurgence in... 29th July 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Delta fears, Hungary-EU spat, more NBU tightening Concerns have grown over the past week about the spread of the Delta variant of COVID-19 but high vaccine coverage across much of the region has reduced the risk that policymakers will be forced to... 23rd July 2021 · 7 mins read
China Economics Weekly Evergrande is a poster child for property sector risks Evergrande appears to be getting closer to a reckoning over the scale of its liabilities as regulators, banks and local governments tighten the screws. It is just the largest of many developers that... 23rd July 2021 · 5 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Vaccines should limit Delta damage While infections are now rising sharply nationwide – particularly in Tokyo where the Delta variant has the strongest hold – most of the vulnerable population are now fully vaccinated so we doubt... 22nd July 2021 · 10 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics A two-speed recovery Strong COVID-19 vaccine rollouts in most of the Gulf and Morocco mean that remaining virus restrictions should be lifted by the end of this year, providing a boost to recoveries that, in the Gulf... 21st July 2021 · 25 mins read
India Chart Pack Inflation has now peaked Amid the ongoing debate over inflation in a post-pandemic world, one thing that does appear clear is that near-term price pressures in India have peaked. Consumer price inflation held steady in June... 21st July 2021 · 9 mins read
China Economics Focus The implications for China and the world of eCNY In this Focus we detail what is known about China’s central bank digital currency and analyse its implications for China and the world. The Focus is fully updated to incorporate the latest publicly... 21st July 2021 · 28 mins read
