Capital Daily We expect the Aussie dollar to remain under pressure Growing evidence of an economic slowdown in China reinforces our view that the Australian dollar will fall further against the US dollar through the end of this year. 21st September 2021 · 6 mins read
UK Markets Chart Pack Worrying more about higher inflation The recent rises in 2-year and 10-year gilt yields to their highest levels since the “dash for cash” at the start of the pandemic have entirely been driven by the investors revising up their... 21st September 2021 · 9 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update “QT” creeping up the agenda in Sweden The Riksbank stuck firmly to “Plan A” this morning by maintaining the status quo for the repo rate and its asset purchase programme. However, the slight tweak to the Bank’s language on the outlook for... 21st September 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Gas prices rocket, CBRT tinkers, chip shortages mount The recent surge in European gas and coal prices adds to the price pressures facing the region and will push headline inflation rates further above central banks' targets in the coming months... 17th September 2021 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly Delta impact evident in both CPI and retail sales While the data released this week showed retail spending picking up in August as price gains moderated, the figures are still consistent with a sharp slowdown in consumption growth in the third... 17th September 2021 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Weak activity news likely to stave off rate hike On the back of the surge in inflation in August and the blistering increases in wholesale gas and electricity prices, investors and some economists have shifted their expectations of the first rate... 17th September 2021 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Monetary policy decisions, served three ways After months of anticipation, the Norges Bank will surely pull the trigger on its long-awaited tightening cycle next Thursday. We suspect that policymakers will portray the rate rise as a “dovish hike... 17th September 2021 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly Property sector leverage, China’s CPTPP bid Evergrande is the poster child for the excesses of China’s property sector, and its short-term liabilities are particularly high. But the sector is full of similarly-leveraged peers. Indeed, nearly... 17th September 2021 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update What an Evergrande collapse would mean for the world We think that the ‘China’s Lehman moment’ narrative is wide of the mark. On its own, a managed default or even messy collapse of Evergrande would have little global impact beyond some market... 16th September 2021 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch D-day looms for Norges Bank as the SNB watches on While the Swiss National Bank is set to leave interest rates on hold yet again next Thursday, the Norges Bank will finally pull the trigger on its tightening cycle. Given the backdrop of global risks... 16th September 2021 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Slowing recovery eases pressure to hike The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) signalled in August that it is getting closer to raising interest rates, but the gloomy tone of the recent news on the global and UK economies will have reduced the... 16th September 2021 · 9 mins read
Asia Economics Update Can Sri Lanka avoid default? Falling foreign exchange reserves, a declining currency and a high level of foreign currency debt mean the risk of a sovereign default in Sri Lanka is growing. While the country should be able to... 16th September 2021 · 5 mins read
US Fed Watch Fed still preparing ground for QE taper We think the sharp slowdown in employment growth in August and broader signs of weakness in the incoming activity data mean the Fed will hold off formally announcing a QE taper at its September... 15th September 2021 · 8 mins read
China Economics Update Property crunch will be followed by lasting decline The root of Evergrande’s troubles – and those of other highly-leveraged developers – is that residential property demand in China is entering an era of sustained decline. Relaxation of regulatory... 15th September 2021 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Stage set for hawkish tweaks to Riksbank’s exit strategy The momentum in the Swedish economy, and jump in inflation in August, gives the Riksbank plenty to ponder at next week’s policy meeting. While repo rate hikes are not on policymakers’ agenda, the... 14th September 2021 · 5 mins read
India Economics Update Three points on banking sector liquidity Measures by the Reserve Bank to drain banking sector liquidity have caught attention over the past few days. But with liquidity still abundant, interbank rates at the very bottom of the rate corridor... 14th September 2021 · 2 mins read
