UK Economics Money & Credit (Jul.) The latest money and credit figures do little to ease mounting concerns that the resurgence in virus cases in July and so-called “pingdemic” brought the consumer recovery to a halt. 31st August 2021 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil at breaking point, Argentina’s SDRs, Chile pensions Brazil’s institutional crisis took a turn for the worse this week, and points to an environment in which fiscal risks will grow and the economic reform agenda will be put on the backburner. Elsewhere... 27th August 2021 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia’s giveaways, NBP’s hawkishness, Turkey and SDRs Russia's government this week unveiled new lump-sum payments to pensioners and military personnel ahead of September's election, strengthening our above-consensus views on inflation and interest rates... 27th August 2021 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Delta not clipping the wings of RBNZ hawks yet New Zealand has entered a draconian lockdown and new infections continue to rise. The lockdown prompted the RBNZ to refrain from hiking interest rates at its August meeting and financial markets were... 26th August 2021 · 11 mins read
India Chart Pack Capital outflows would be no major macro concern Foreign portfolio outflows from Indian financial markets have been easing this month, bucking the broader EM trend. This may have been driven in part by the improvement in the virus situation. Looking... 25th August 2021 · 9 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Bank of Korea to hike rates next week With new cases of COVID-19 rising, most analysts expect the Bank of Korea (BoK) to leave rates unchanged on Thursday. While it is likely to be a close call, we are sticking with our view that the... 20th August 2021 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank still on track for September rate lift-off This morning’s decision by the Norges Bank to leave its policy rate on hold at a record low of zero was no surprise. Following the delay to the tightening cycle in New Zealand, the Norges Bank is back... 19th August 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Asia bucks the monetary policy trend Several EM central banks have continued to tighten monetary policy over the past month or so in response to strong reopening rebounds (Chile, Czech Republic, Hungary) and/or rising inflation concerns... 18th August 2021 · 10 mins read
US Chart Pack Growth slowing even before potential Delta drag The 1.1% m/m fall in retail sales last month illustrates the worsening drag from the sharp slowdown in real income growth, as earlier fiscal support fades and surging prices erode purchasing power... 18th August 2021 · 9 mins read
Latin America Economics Colombia: BanRep to hike despite Q2 GDP drop The sharper-than-expected 2.4% q/q fall in Colombia’s GDP in Q2 was largely due to protest-related disruption in May and masked a strong rebound in output at the end of the quarter. The economic... 18th August 2021 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily We expect US credit spreads to continue to rise We suspect that corporate credit spreads in the US have now troughed and expect them to keep rising. 17th August 2021 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Norway going its own way The SNB and the Riksbank will leave interest rates on hold throughout 2022 and 2023 and probably beyond, but the start of rate hikes by the Norges Bank is edging ever closer. (See here.) Once the... 16th August 2021 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly Delta wave may have peaked but it won’t be the last Aggressive containment measures, mass testing and quarantine appear already to be bringing China’s Delta outbreak under control. The economic cost should be fleeting – but it will be felt beyond China... 13th August 2021 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Norges Bank treading water before taking the plunge The Norges Bank is set to leave interest rates on hold at zero next Thursday (19 th August), but it will almost certainly start to raise them, and tighten macroprudential policy further, in September. 12th August 2021 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Recovery becoming more tepid With a whopping 1.0 million people on average having been asked by the NHS App or Test & Trace system to self-isolate in July, the “pingdemic” is likely to have stifled the economic recovery in recent... 11th August 2021 · 9 mins read
UK Markets Economy and policy to provide a bit less support The recent downward revision to our GDP growth forecasts and the recent hawkish signs from the Bank of England which prompted us to bring forward our forecast of when monetary policy will be tightened... 9th August 2021 · 12 mins read
