Emerging Europe Economics Update CBR slows down tightening, cycle nearing an end Russia’s central bank (CBR) slowed down its monetary tightening cycle with a 25bp interest rate hike, to 6.75% at today’s meeting and the accompanying communications suggest that there may be just one... 10th September 2021 · 3 mins read
China Data Response China Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Aug.) Credit growth dropped in August to its slowest pace since December 2018. With the PBOC now shifting gears to a slightly more supportive stance, credit growth may level off in the coming quarters. But... 10th September 2021 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly Evergrande credit risks, border controls China’s banking system has large enough capital buffers to absorb an Evergrande collapse provided that the PBOC steps in to backstop the interbank market. Meanwhile, the one-sided reopening of the HK... 10th September 2021 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Shortages stifling activity and boosting inflation The broadening of the recent product and labour shortages appears to be holding back activity and adding to the upward pressure on inflation. The risk is twofold. First, these shortages may prevent... 9th September 2021 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB slows purchases but keeps policy ultra-loose The ECB today confirmed that it will slow its asset purchases slightly but this is a long way from a “full taper”. We think inflation will drop even further than the ECB expects over the medium term... 9th September 2021 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Algosaibi deal, Egypt and COVID, UAE Projects of the 50 One of Saudi Arabia’s largest conglomerates, the Algosaibi group, is on the cusp of securing a debt restructuring agreement with its creditors, a sign that recent reforms are helping to speed up... 9th September 2021 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Evergrande & frontier sovereign debt risks build The combination of large foreign-currency debt burdens, low FX reserves and weakening currencies means that the risk of sovereign defaults in Sri Lanka and Tunisia is growing. Elsewhere, China’s... 9th September 2021 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Update Ethiopia: debt risks loom larger with escalating conflict Ethiopia’s escalating internal conflict has reignited concerns about the country’s public debt position. While debt dynamics may not look that worrisome on the surface, the political situation... 8th September 2021 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Despite RBA tapering, we expect a weaker Australian dollar Despite today’s decision by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to taper its asset purchases, we think the Australian dollar will weaken against the US dollar over the remainder of the year. 7th September 2021 · 7 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Rise in inflation is not over Headline inflation came in higher than our above-consensus forecast in August and, at 3.0%, reached its highest level for a decade. It is likely to rise a bit further in the coming months: producer... 6th September 2021 · 11 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly GDP shrinks, opinion polls shift The unexpected contraction in second-quarter GDP comes at a bad time for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, with support for the ruling Liberal Party falling further this week and projections now pointing... 3rd September 2021 · 5 mins read
ECB Watch Slower purchase pace in sight, but rate hikes are not The ECB is likely to use next week’s meeting to prepare the ground for a very gradual reduction in asset purchases under the emergency PEPP. But, taking a leaf out of the Fed’s book, it will stress... 2nd September 2021 · 7 mins read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jul.) The latest data show that growth in the main monetary aggregates is slowing even before the Fed starts tapering its monthly asset purchases, although it remains strong by historic standards. We’ll be... 1st September 2021 · 3 mins read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank to keep policy unchanged as recovery stalls The unexpected contraction in second-quarter GDP means the Bank of Canada is likely to wait until October before reducing the pace of its asset purchases again, rather than pushing ahead with tapering... 1st September 2021 · 7 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Focus Riksbank to take a chance on “QT” next year Housing market valuations in Sweden are even more stretched than on past occasions when the Riksbank has “leant against the wind” – that is, set policy tighter than needed to contain consumer price... 1st September 2021 · 17 mins read
China Chart Pack Party soon to target property and healthcare costs A WeChat post by a prominent blogger voicing support for Xi Jinping’s “common prosperity” campaign has been widely re-published by state media, giving it a rare seal of Party approval. The post argues... 31st August 2021 · 13 mins read
