US Data Response Employment Report (Apr.) The solid 428,000 gain in non-farm payroll employment in April illustrates that the Fed was right to ignore the misleading contraction in first-quarter GDP, with the economy still on a firm footing... 6th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SA recovery falters, wage talks, Kenya’s soft start to 2022 Recent flooding in a key province and warnings this week that power cuts could reach unprecedented levels are the latest in a long list of blows to South Africa’s economy that have repeatedly stifled... 6th May 2022 · 5 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Inflation becoming more entrenched The latest data suggest that the increase in inflation is becoming more broad-based and persistent. While headline inflation only edged up in April, the core measure jumped to 3.5%. A range of... 5th May 2022 · 12 mins read
Africa Economic Outlook Debt problems building Sub-Saharan Africa’s recovery is likely to remain slow going and our growth forecasts are generally below the consensus. While spillovers from the war in Ukraine will boost a handful of economies –... 4th May 2022 · 22 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand Labour Market (Q1 2022) The continued tightness in the New Zealand labour market despite the omicron outbreak provides further evidence that the economy is still running hot. That’s why we expect the RBNZ to hike rates by 50... 4th May 2022 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Labour market conditions remain tight While the job openings and quits rates both edged up again in March, the bigger picture remains that labour market conditions have been stable over the past nine months or so, with few signs that... 3rd May 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment (Mar.) The euro-zone unemployment rate fell to a new record low in March, and the latest business surveys suggest that employment will continue to increase at a decent pace. With the surveys also showing... 3rd May 2022 · 2 mins read
Asia Chart Pack Tightening cycles to be gradual Central banks across the region have recently turned more hawkish. Over the past month or so, policymakers in Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, Sri Lanka, India and Pakistan have all tightened policy... 29th April 2022 · 14 mins read
China Chart Pack China will barely grow in dollar terms this year President Xi has reportedly told officials to ensure that China’s real GDP growth exceeds that of the US this year. This is likely to happen on paper. The published data usually confirm that growth... 29th April 2022 · 12 mins read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Growth to underwhelm as inflation surges Lockdowns in China and spillovers from the war in Ukraine will slow the EM recovery and growth is likely to be weaker than most expect. Recession risks are rising in Emerging Europe in particular. On... 28th April 2022 · 28 mins read
India Chart Pack Monetary conditions tighten The key policy development this month was the introduction of a new Standing Deposit Facility, through which the RBI will drain excess banking sector liquidity. The SDF now provides the floor for the... 28th April 2022 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Inflation risks mount as commodity prices surge Surging commodity prices have pushed up inflation across the region and we expect inflation to hit fresh multi-year highs in the coming months. A loss of Russian gas supplies should not lead to... 28th April 2022 · 11 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Labour demand will continue to cool We expect that employment growth continued to trend lower in April, with non-farm payrolls rising by 375,000. Alongside rebounding participation, that easing in labour demand looks set to drive wage... 28th April 2022 · 3 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Fiscal positions largely going from worse to bad Fiscal positions across Sub-Saharan Africa have been a persistent source of concern since the onset of the pandemic – and in some cases, even before. And the commodity price moves resulting from the... 28th April 2022 · 10 mins read
Asia Economic Outlook New headwinds emerge Our GDP growth forecasts are generally above the consensus, but with higher commodity prices and weaker global demand set to weigh on economic recoveries, growth across much of Emerging Asia will be... 28th April 2022 · 35 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Food inflation a growing concern Inflation continues to march higher in Latin America, most recently driven by surging food prices owing to poor domestic weather conditions and rising global agricultural prices. This has led to... 27th April 2022 · 11 mins read
